The market faces a significant correction— is this the midpoint or the end of the cycle?

Author: Chloe, ChainCatcher

 

Only four days into November, the crypto market has already experienced a significant correction. Bitcoin has dropped nearly 13% over the past month, falling from its previous high to around $104,000, with prices fluctuating repeatedly. ETH's trading price has dropped nearly 20% over the same period. Facing this round of correction, market sentiment is generally anxious, with many asking: is this the bottom? Has the market turned completely bearish? Is this correction truly a peak reversal, or is the market perhaps in the darkness before dawn?

ChainCatcher has compiled interpretations from industry experts, analysts, traders, and institutional investors from different perspectives. How do various parties view this market correction?

Market OGs Take Profits on Large Positions

Enflux pointed out in a report to CoinDesk that liquidity is flowing out of cryptocurrencies and back into traditional finance led by AI and fintech. Enflux stated that Wall Street is preparing for another rally driven by liquidity and infrastructure investment, while cryptocurrencies will continue to test where the real bottom lies.

QCP Capital believes that the recent correction has little to do with macro factors. Instead, Bitcoin's "veteran" holders are taking profits after a long-term rally, selling large amounts of BTC to exchanges such as Kraken. On-chain data shows that about 405,000 BTC in long-term supply changed hands over the past month, but prices have remained above the $100,000 threshold. QCP stated: "The market absorbed the traditional supply without breaking key support," noting that leverage remains low and funding rates are flat.

Renowned Wall Street market analyst Jordi Visser shares a similar view: "The predicament is real, and frankly, the current sentiment in the crypto market is very poor." However, Jordi Visser believes that Bitcoin is currently undergoing a "silent IPO."

He pointed out that the current price consolidation in the market is not a sign of failure, but rather a normal process of early holders realizing profits. Visser explained, "Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz disclosed in a recent earnings call that the company sold $9 billion worth of Bitcoin for a client, representing OGs exiting in an orderly manner."

This process is similar to the end of the lock-up period after a traditional IPO, where early investors are not panic selling but are methodically distributing their holdings. "They have been patient, waiting for this moment for years." He believes that the decoupling of Bitcoin from risk assets proves this point: if the weakness were macro-driven, Bitcoin should fall alongside risk assets rather than diverge.

Bitcoin Continues to Follow Typical Post-Halving Trend, Price May Break Out

Robert Kiyosaki, author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," once again issued a crash warning: "A massive crash is starting, millions will be wiped out, protect yourself, silver, gold, Bitcoin, and Ethereum will protect you." However, between November 2024 and October 2025, he has issued about 30 similar crash warnings. Cryptonews joked that while the market is indeed bad now, Robert's track record is also quite poor; historically, the market often moves opposite to his predictions.

 

StealthEx CEO Maria Carola believes that market risk remains high, but the market appears stronger than in previous cycles. However, she also warns that, since the market is more liquid than in past cycles, the frequency of extreme flash crashes has decreased, but systemic risks—such as major LPs withdrawing liquidity, unexpected macro events, or regulatory shocks—could still trigger significant volatility.

TEN Protocol co-founder and Head of Product Cais Manai pointed out that Ethereum's recovery remains uncertain amid changing macro conditions. If the Federal Reserve turns dovish and risk appetite returns, we may see ETH quickly reclaim $4,500, especially if ETF inflows remain healthy.

SynFutures CEO Rachel Lin is relatively optimistic in her assessment, stating that October's decline may be laying the foundation for the next bull run. She believes such corrections are often the midpoint of a larger cycle. She expects November may enter a "stabilization + cautious optimism" phase, and if Bitcoin continues to follow the typical post-halving trend, it is possible for Bitcoin to rise to $120,000–$150,000 by the end of 2025.

Traders' Views: Will the End of the US Government Shutdown Signal the Dawn?

@CatoKt4 believes the core reason for the decline is that the market was "drained" again during a liquidity tightening phase, mainly because during the US government shutdown, the Treasury General Account (TGA) could not release funds into the market. When the government is shut down, this pool only receives funds but does not disburse them, causing a large amount of liquidity to be sucked out of the market.

On the same night, the US Treasury auctioned 3-month and 6-month bonds, with a total auction size of $163 billion and an actual auction amount of $170.69 billion. After deducting the Federal Reserve's SOMA account reinvestment ($7.69 billion), $163 billion was withdrawn from financial markets to purchase Treasuries. In normal times, auctions of this scale have limited impact on risk assets, but during periods of already tight liquidity, the withdrawal of $163 billion had a significant impact on the market.

Additionally, hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve reduced the probability of a December rate cut from 69.8% to 67.5%, dampening market confidence in a rate cut.

@Trader_S18 cited the latest reports from Goldman Sachs and Citi, noting that the government shutdown will end within two weeks. Goldman Sachs believes the shutdown is nearing its end and expects an appropriations agreement most likely around the second week of November. He suggested the following trading rhythm for the next two weeks: before November 7, watch whether BTC forms a bottom in the 107k–111k range; if BTC breaks out and stabilizes above 112k before November 12, consider increasing positions for a rebound; if the government reopens in mid-November, BTC could challenge previous highs of 124k–126k.

He believes that the impact of the government shutdown is no less than a hidden rate hike. Conversely, in such a harsh external environment, the market has only dropped this much, which is already impressive. He urges users to hold on for another week or two; once the US government reopens and the Treasury starts drawing down its massive TGA cash balance, up to $900 billion in cash will flow back into the banking system, equivalent to a hidden quantitative easing. Then, good times will come.

@TXMCtrades believes that when everyone is calling the top, it actually proves that it is not the top, because true tops usually occur when no one expects them and all coins are surging. This time, only a few major coins have risen, while others remain at low levels, indicating that market enthusiasm has not yet peaked and the bull market may not be over.

@TraderNoah expressed harsh criticism and cautious optimism about the entire crypto industry. He believes that after years of performance, the market can now withstand these "unacceptable facts." First, current prices are not cheap; even if some tokens have dropped 80%, underperforming assets deserve it because they essentially lack value. Second, over 80% of people in the industry are incompetent compared to other sectors and will inevitably be weeded out over time. Third, overall fund performance is poor. He emphasized that the crypto industry has historically not been taken seriously by outsiders because it is filled with speculation and immaturity.

However, Noah is optimistic about the future, because the excessive behavior after the 2021 bull market (such as bubbles and low-quality projects) is finally being eliminated one by one. Although this will bring pain in the short term and may even "kill off" most market participants, it is a necessary process for the industry to achieve success and maturity—a painful transformation.

@CredibleCrypto firmly believes that the market will absolutely not top out at a mere $4 trillion market cap. "Since 2020, I have repeatedly said that we will see at least $10 trillion total market cap before this cycle ends. I still hold this view, and I will not sell anything at $4 trillion market cap."

@Ashcryptoreal emphasized an optimistic outlook through historical comparison. He recalled that in early November 2024, Bitcoin plummeted from $71k to $66k, and everyone thought the market was finished. But within just 45 days, it soared 60% to $108k. During the same period, from November 4 to December 15, ETH rose 75%, the total market cap of other tokens surged 138%, and many small coins increased 5–10 times in less than two months, showing that the market can generate explosive parabolic returns in a short time. Now, a similar drop has occurred in early November 2025. He pointed out, "All data is positive, including the Fed's December rate cut, the end of quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1, the start of quantitative easing (QE) (Fed buying Treasuries), the signing of the US-China trade agreement, gold prices reaching a peak, and US stocks hitting new highs."

He firmly believes that crypto prices are being manipulated and suppressed, and does not accept the view that the crypto market is over in the context of ample global liquidity and rising other assets. Therefore, he chooses to hold coins patiently, knowing the risks inherent in investing in the crypto market, even though the process is not easy.

In conclusion, although various parties interpret the reasons for this correction differently—some believe it is due to capital rotation to traditional markets, others think it is early holders taking profits, and some attribute it to liquidity tightening caused by the government shutdown—it is certain that the market is in a critical waiting period, including the reopening of the US government and a policy shift by the Federal Reserve. It is undeniable that Bitcoin's fundamentals are stronger than ever. According to historical data, Bitcoin's average return in the third quarter remains positive at 6.05%. Moreover, November has been one of Bitcoin's strongest months over the past few years, with an average increase of 42% over the past 12 years.

This phenomenon of holdings shifting from concentrated to distributed may be precisely the transitional period Bitcoin needs to officially graduate from the experimental stage to become a long-term monetary asset.