Bitcoin News Today: Is Bitcoin’s $94,000 Level a Temporary Mid-Cycle Halt or an Indication of Capitulation?

Bitcoin's recent dip beneath the $100,000 mark

has brought renewed focus to the $94,000 support, a level that analysts consider more pivotal than the coin’s latest price swings, both psychologically and technically. about whether the bull run is nearing a capitulation phase or simply undergoing a routine mid-cycle pullback.

From a technical perspective, some analysts highlight the Wyckoff distribution pattern as a bearish signal, indicating

could slide toward $86,000 if it cannot reclaim $94,000. process, and Bitcoin’s current trajectory closely mirrors previous market peaks. Important zones like the $102,000–$104,000 accumulation range and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $106,453 have , hastening the move into the markdown stage. , which has tumbled from 80 in early October to just 20, highlights the growing bearish mood.

The $94,000 mark, which is the average entry price for holders over the past 6–12 months, has become a central focus. A decisive drop below this level would signal a change in market sentiment and could spark a deeper correction.

that even though Bitcoin has steadied near $100,000, the 50-day EMA crossing under the 100-day EMA—a so-called "death cross"—points to continued on the downside. On-chain data also shows that long-term holders (LTHs) have , the highest monthly total since January 2024, adding to the selling pressure.

Institutional appetite has also waned, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing significant withdrawals.

in net outflows just on Thursday, the second-largest since these ETFs began trading. on Monday, the overall trend points to risk aversion as investors await more clarity on Federal Reserve policy. The DXY dollar index’s jump to 99.58 has further weighed on crypto markets, which remain highly sensitive to macroeconomic developments.

Retail and derivatives markets are echoing the caution seen among institutions.

, approaching lows not seen since early March, while open interest in Bitcoin futures has declined. Deribit data shows put options are trading at a premium over calls, reflecting increased demand for downside hedges. have mirrored Bitcoin’s weakness, falling below major moving averages with technical signals suggesting further losses may be ahead.

Experts remain split on the broader outlook. Some believe the $94,000 level is only a temporary obstacle, while others caution that continued institutional selling could lead to a more pronounced downturn.

the current retracement as a "mid-cycle consolidation," referencing past corrections of around 22% from all-time highs before a reversal. However, that without a resurgence in ETF inflows or large-scale buying similar to Michael Saylor’s, Bitcoin’s recovery could stall.

If Bitcoin falls through $94,000, the next significant supports—$91,000 (2x Metcalfe Network Value band) and $72,000 (Traders' minimum price band)—may be tested. On the other hand,

could revive bullish sentiment, though broader macroeconomic uncertainties, especially regarding Fed policy, continue to pose risks.