Bitcoin’s Sharp Decline: Causes Behind the Fall and Future Outlook

At the end of November 2025,

saw a steep drop, falling below the $100,000 mark as a result of overlapping macroeconomic changes, regulatory ambiguity, and exchange-related pressures. This piece explores the main factors behind the decline—from institutional withdrawals to negative technical signals—and considers whether this downturn represents a buying window or the start of a more significant correction.

Regulatory Ambiguity and Shifting Enforcement

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), led by Chair Paul Atkins, reduced its enforcement actions against crypto companies by 30% in fiscal 2025 compared to the previous year, with

. Although this pullback initially sparked hope, , leaving the market in a state of uncertainty. At the same time, of crypto derivatives to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), adding further confusion to the regulatory environment. While these events weren’t directly blamed for the November drop, they highlighted a lack of regulatory clarity that may have unnerved risk-seeking investors.

Macroeconomic Drivers: Inflation, Tariffs, and Treasury Moves

When the U.S. government resumed operations in November 2025,

, including October’s CPI, PPI, and trade data. A $125 billion Treasury bond sale was intended to stabilize long-term rates, but . Simultaneously, in August 2025, but also disrupted global supply chains and economic growth. , leading many to move away from riskier assets like Bitcoin.

Exchange Factors: ETF Withdrawals and Institutional Shifts

The BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT)

, with its price dropping 23% from its Q3 peak. This mirrored Bitcoin’s overall slide, as institutional interest faded amid negative sentiment. On the other hand, during Q3, showing continued faith in the long-term. Meanwhile, Metaplanet , offering shares to institutional buyers at 900 yen each. These fundraising moves demonstrate Bitcoin’s role in creative financial strategies, but also suggest a cautious approach in a tightening environment.

Technical Analysis: Oversold Signals and Downward Pressure

By November 17, 2025, Bitcoin

, trading at $95,378.44 after a 0.2% drop over 24 hours. : the RSI dropped to 33.79 (signaling oversold conditions), the MACD was deeply negative at -4,003, and the price stayed below all major moving averages (7-day SMA at $97,747, 20-day SMA at $103,126). Falling below $93,006 could push prices toward the $90,000 psychological barrier, while a move above $97,748 might indicate a short-term recovery. .

Expert Insights: Conflicting Perspectives on What’s Next

Opinions in the market are split. On one side,

, remained optimistic, forecasting a year-end price of $150,000 and noting a 25% return on its Bitcoin investments so far this year. On the other side, , with the odds of further declines rising quickly. —such as sensitivity to real interest rates—means its rebound depends on easing inflation and steady ETF inflows.

Is This a Chance to Buy or a Sign to Be Cautious?

The November 2025 downturn presents a complex scenario. While technical data points to oversold conditions and possible short-term recoveries, ongoing macroeconomic challenges—like tariffs and Treasury market volatility—continue to pose threats. Institutional moves, such as ADIC’s ETF purchases and Metaplanet’s innovative fundraising, suggest there is still underlying demand. However, the lack of regulatory certainty and persistent negative momentum suggest caution. For those willing to take risks, the $93,006 support level could be a strategic entry if economic data stabilizes. For others, the decline may indicate a deeper correction and the need for patience.