The probability of a Fed rate cut in January has dropped to 19.9%, while the probability of maintaining rates unchanged until March is 44.7%.

BlockBeats News, December 22, according to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year has fallen below 20%, currently at 19.9%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 80.1%. Last week, the probability of a January Fed rate cut had risen to 31%.

The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged until March next year is 44.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 46.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 8.8%.

The next two FOMC meeting dates are January 28, 2026, and March 18, 2026, respectively.