MSTR: Buy the Dip or Wait and See? Three Key Strategy Questions You Must Know

Original / Odaily

Author / Wenser

As the "barometer of cryptocurrency," Strategy's stock price has always been closely watched by the market, with its performance tightly linked to key factors such as cash flow stability and index status. The latest news shows that from December 15 to 21, Strategy raised $748 million through the sale of common stock, increasing its cash reserves to $2.19 billion, and has suspended bitcoin purchases; the company currently holds bitcoin worth about $60 billion.

At present, the key issue facing both the crypto market and Strategy is: when will the stock price break free from its downward predicament? When should investors position themselves in MSTR stock? Odaily will briefly analyze these questions through the following three points.

First Question: The Origin of Strategy's Downturn—MSCI Index Exclusion Turmoil

Reviewing the stock price declines in Strategy's third and fourth quarters, aside from the industry-wide systemic downturn caused by the "10·11 crash" and the weakening of buying power in the crypto market, the most direct trigger was actually the October incident of "Strategy possibly being excluded from the MSCI index."

Strategy's Current Status: Unrealized Gains Exceed $10.1 Billion, Annual Yield About 24%

According to on-chain analyst Yujin's monitoring, as of December 22, Strategy (MSTR) still holds 671,268 BTC, valued at $60.441 billion, with an average cost of $74,972 per bitcoin, and an unrealized gain of $10.114 billion. In contrast, ETH treasury leader BitMine's average ETH holding cost is as high as $3,884, resulting in an unrealized loss of $3.37 billion. In this regard, BTC's resilience compared to ETH is still evident.

On December 15, Strategy founder and executive chairman Michael Saylor stated that Strategy holds 671,268 bitcoins at an average purchase price of $74,972, with a year-to-date bitcoin yield of 24.9%. From the financial data, Strategy remains an outstanding blue-chip stock.

However, from the overall data of BTC treasury companies, due to BTC's -6% annual decline, according to a BitcoinTreasuries.net report, in 2025, only one bitcoin treasury company's stock price outperformed the benchmark S&P 500 index (with a year-to-date return of 16%), namely the France-based The Blockchain Group, whose stock price has soared about 164% since January 1. In comparison, Strategy's stock price fell 12%, Metaplanet's stock price dropped by nearly a third, and Nakamoto, which once raised over $600 million to buy bitcoin, has seen its market value plummet by more than 98%.

MSCI Index Exclusion Turmoil: Proposal to Ban Companies with Over 50% Digital Asset Holdings from Inclusion

In October this year, in response to client inquiries, MSCI proposed to exclude companies whose digital asset holdings account for 50% or more of total assets from its global benchmark indices. MSCI believes such companies are more like investment funds, which are not included in its index system. However,

This move quickly drew criticism and rebuttal from related companies: Strategy warned that this would cause severe index volatility and contradict U.S. government policies promoting digital asset innovation; additionally, Strategy strongly urged the MSCI stock index committee to abandon the proposal; many related companies stated they are engaged in actual operations and developing innovative products, and that the proposal unfairly discriminates against the crypto industry.

The two sides engaged in heated debate: MSCI argued that digital asset treasury (DATs) companies like Strategy and BitMine are more like investment funds than traditional operating businesses; Strategy pointed out that since IFRS-reporting companies can value bitcoin at cost, while U.S. GAAP requires quarterly fair value marking, the rule is difficult to apply consistently. If bitcoin prices fluctuate or accounting standards differ, companies holding bitcoin assets will "move in and out" of major indices dramatically, causing confusion for index providers and investors.

The market's reaction has been mixed and divisive.

Potential Impact of Strategy's MSCI Index Exclusion: Could Lead to Up to $15 Billion in Crypto Sell-Offs

After the MSCI index exclusion turmoil, various institutional analysts offered their views:

• JPMorgan analysts estimate that if Strategy is removed from the MSCI index, passive funds tracking the index may be forced to sell up to $2.8 billion in Strategy stock, resulting in about $2.8 billion in passive capital outflows from the market.
• If MSCI proceeds with its plan to exclude crypto asset treasury companies from its indices, related companies may be forced to sell up to $15 billion in cryptocurrencies. The group opposing MSCI's proposal, "BitcoinForCorporations," predicts based on a "verified preliminary list" of 39 companies that these companies, with a total adjusted circulating market cap of $113 billion, will face $10 billion to $15 billion in capital outflows; Strategy accounts for 74.5% of the affected total adjusted circulating market cap.
• Some analysts say this move could cause the company, which holds a large amount of bitcoin, to lose up to $9 billion in stock demand and weaken the appeal of the entire sector.
• In December, Strategy successfully passed the Nasdaq 100 index adjustment, marking the first time it has successfully withstood such a test since joining the index in December last year.
• Wall Street investment banks Jefferies and TD Cowen analysts pointed out that if Strategy is ultimately excluded by MSCI, other indices in the global financial markets may follow suit, mainly including: the Nasdaq 100 index, the CRSP US Total Market Index, and the FTSE Russell indices under the London Stock Exchange Group.
• As of December 20, the Nasdaq 100 index has retained Strategy, CRSP declined to comment on whether it would consider excluding Strategy, and a spokesperson for the London Stock Exchange Group said it would continue to monitor the matter, but related responses would follow its internal management processes.
• Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor and CEO Phong Le have written to MSCI, arguing that the company is an operating entity rather than a passive investment vehicle.

Currently, MSCI is conducting a public consultation and will announce its final decision on January 15 next year.

Second Question: Lindy Effect Validation in the DAT Sector—Can Strategy Become "Too Big to Fail"?

The Lindy effect suggests that the longer something has existed, the more likely it is to continue existing in the future.

For example, classics such as the Bible and the Analects are more likely to be passed down than today's bestsellers or influencer autobiographies.

Previously, Strategy founder Michael Saylor boldly stated that "If MicroStrategy can accumulate 5% of the total bitcoin supply, the price of bitcoin will reach $1 million. He further stated that if the holding ratio reaches 7%, each bitcoin will be worth $10 million." He described this behavior as providing upward momentum for the network.

Previously, BitMine chairman Tom Lee analyzed and affirmed the move of "Strategy establishing a $1.4 billion cash reserve," stating: "Although Strategy's stock price has fallen more than 50% in the past six months, this cash reserve will allow the company to continue paying shareholder dividends during bitcoin price declines without having to sell its $61 billion bitcoin holdings." He also pointed out that in the last bitcoin downturn cycle, Strategy's stock once traded below its net asset value (NAV), and building up cash reserves is precisely to prepare for such situations.

According to TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza's statement, Strategy needs to pay about $824 million in interest and dividends annually.

Considering the news that Strategy's cash reserves have increased to $2.19 billion, the company's "cash flow crisis" can at least be postponed until the second half of 2027.

Third Question: Is There Still Buying Interest in Strategy Stock? Billionaire Funds and Sovereign Funds Are Still Buying

Aside from the Q3 shareholder information we previously mentioned in "Stock Price Halved but Backed by Long-Term Capital: Unveiling Strategy's 'Mysterious Shareholder Group'", Strategy stock has recently seen solid buying interest in the market. The latest news today shows that Strategy (MSTR)'s daily trading volume has surpassed that of banking giant JPMorgan. In addition, other buyers are all large asset management funds:

Billionaire's Hedge Fund Buys Over 390,000 MSTR Shares Worth $65 Million

On December 17, billionaire Steve Cohen's hedge fund Point72 Asset Management purchased 390,666 shares (worth about $65 million) of bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR) stock.

South Korea's National Pension Service: Strategy Stock Holdings Increased to $93 Million

On December 10, BitcoinTreasuries.NET disclosed that South Korea's National Pension Service (NPS), with assets of $1 trillion, has increased its holdings in listed bitcoin-holding company Strategy (MSTR) to $93 million.

Conclusion: January 15 May Be the Final Moment to Take Over MSTR Stock

Previously, although Citi sharply lowered the target price of bitcoin treasury listed company Strategy's stock from $485 to $325, it still maintained its "buy" rating, reflecting capital institutions' long-term confidence in the MSTR target. And on January 15 next year, whether the MSCI index will continue to include Strategy may become the final verdict for taking over MSTR stock.

Before then, whether to bottom-fish or wait for the right moment depends on the investor's individual risk preference.