Marie KursROSE

$ROSE - Taking a first entry. Either it remains flat over the next few months and can sell for a little loss or we get a little alt season and shouldn't need much momentum for a 2x. For swing traders using a 10% stop loss gives you a nice 10:1 risk to reward setup.

The American consumer once again proved to be a driving force behind the economy in August. According to the latest Commerce Department data, retail sales rose 0.6% month-over-month, significantly higher than economists’ forecasts of +0.2%. July’s reading was also revised upward to +0.6%, from an initial estimate of +0.5%. This unexpected strength highlights the continued resilience of consumer spending, even as inflationary pressures, higher borrowing costs, and global uncertainty weigh on the economic outlook. A Closer Look at the Numbers Core sales strength: Excluding autos and gasoline, retail sales jumped 0.7%, topping expectations of +0.4%. Year-over-year trend: Retail sales were up about 5% compared to August 2024, a sign that overall demand remains robust. Category highlights: Online/non-store retailers: +2% Clothing and accessories: +1% Sporting goods and hobby stores: +0.8% Electronics & appliances: modest gains Not every sector shared in the momentum. Furniture and home furnishings sales dipped roughly -0.3%, reflecting pressure from higher costs and tariff-related headwinds. What’s Driving the Upside Back-to-School Spending Seasonal demand gave a notable boost to categories like clothing, electronics, and accessories. Many households accelerated purchases in anticipation of price increases later in the year. Consumer Wealth Effect Despite slowing job growth, higher-income households benefited from rising home values and equity market gains, helping sustain discretionary spending. Inflation and Tariff Dynamics Persistent inflation and trade-related tariffs have lifted costs across many sectors. Some of August’s gains may reflect consumers buying early to lock in lower prices before further increases. Policy and Market Implications Federal Reserve outlook: The stronger-than-expected sales data has cooled speculation of a large September rate cut. Markets are still pricing in the possibility of a 25-basis-point reduction, but the Fed now faces greater pressure to balance inflation risks with slowing job growth. Economic resilience: While unemployment is edging higher and wage gains are moderating, consumer spending remains a key support for the economy. Inflation watch: Rising prices continue to strain lower- and middle-income households, raising questions about how long spending strength can last. What Comes Next Market participants will closely watch the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, upcoming inflation releases (CPI, PPI), and labor market data to assess whether this surge in consumer spending can be sustained. Retailers, meanwhile, face the challenge of managing inventory and supply chain costs while navigating an uncertain holiday season. Conclusion August’s retail sales report was a reminder that, despite challenges, the American consumer remains resilient. Spending gains across discretionary categories reflect confidence and adaptability in the face of economic headwinds. Still, the durability of this momentum will hinge on whether inflation eases and the labor market stabilizes. For now, consumer demand remains the economy’s strongest pillar one that both reassures investors and complicates the Federal Reserve’s next move.

#Bitcoin #btc #crypto Santiment notes that ahead of the FOMC meeting, "greed" and "bullish" sentiment in BTC rose to a 10-week high = historically bearish. $BTC

$OPEN ~ $0.83; short DEMA(9) ~0.83, RSI ~41, ATR ~0.013. Circulating supply ~215–220M of 1B max; listings and staking increased liquidity. Why this is decisive • Structural decision zone — recent retests of the lower pivot will resolve accumulation vs distribution; the next hourly close outside the band will decide bias. • Utility — OPEN is the native token for OpenLedger’s AI-data network used for fees, staking and governance; staking can pull supply from market. • Listing-driven liquidity — recent Bitget and other listings have re-priced liquidity and increased flows; early listing churn can produce volatile retests. • Momentum context — short-term ribbon tension around the DEMA with muted RSI points to a tight range; ATR is elevated versus immediate noise so expect wider intraday swings. Top indicators to watch — quick rules • Volume/OBV — require session volume ≥ 20-hour average and OBV rising for breakout confirmation. • VWAP — retests above VWAP favor longs; below favors sellers. • DEMA/EMA ribbon — widening ribbon with price above signals expansion; tight ribbon warns false moves. • RSI/MACD/Stoch-RSI — use for divergence and early exhaustion detection. Concrete levels (decisive lines) • Pivot/floor: $0.78–$0.82 (local demand). • Breakout gate: $1.00–$1.07. • Targets: T1 $1.16 → T2 $1.30; stretch $1.60 with cross-exchange volume. • Defensive support: $0.60–$0.68; structural floor ~ $0.35. Two clean scenarios — exact triggers and conditions Bull Breakout (validated) • Trigger: hourly close above $1.07 with session volume > 20-hr average and OBV rising. • Confirm: retest holds near VWAP/DEMA; MACD and Stoch-RSI confirm momentum. • Targets: trim at T1 $1.16, scale toward $1.30; stretch $1.60 with cross-venue flow. • Stop: invalidate on hourly/daily close back inside gate; use −1.0 to −1.5× ATR on retest. Bear Breakdown (validated) • Trigger: hourly close below $0.78 with accelerating sell volume. • Confirm: OBV down, RSI into low 30s. • Targets: $0.60 → $0.35 on confirmed breakdown. • Stop: place above failed retest wick or recent local swing; reduce size if move originates on single-exchange prints. Execution tactics (practical) • Size: keep initial allocation light; scale on proven retests. • Entries: limit on retests — buy above $1.00–$1.07 or sell failed retest under $0.82. • Exits: trim 30–50% at T1, move stop to breakeven, trail remainder with 1×ATR. • Orders: ladder to minimize slippage; avoid large market takers. • Events: reduce size and widen stops around listings, airdrops or unlocks. Indicator combo examples • Conservative: wait for hourly close > $1.07 + volume spike → enter on retest. • Aggressive: partial entry on breakout; add after retest. • Scalp: trade intra-range using Stoch-RSI and VWAP; ATR-based stops. On-chain & fundamentals snapshot • Tokenomics: max supply 1B; circulating ~215–220M; staking and rewards affect effective float. (CoinMarketCap) • Fundamentals: OpenLedger is a decentralized AI data and model network; partnerships and integrations will drive utility. (openledger.xyz) • Sentiment: social mentions rose around listings; short-term sentiment is mixed. Risk & market-micro notes • Thin books and concentrated holders can cause slippage and fakeouts. • Watch exchange inflows and staking unlocks; inbound transfers often precede sell pressure. • Prefer cross-exchange volume and OBV confirmation before scaling. • ATR elevation implies wider-than-normal intraday ranges; conserve risk per trade. Measured move & math: use the height of the recent base to compute stretch targets. Measure from the lower pivot (~$0.80 mid) to the breakout gate (~$1.07) to get a base distance; a ~33% measured move above $1.07 approximates the $1.40–$1.60 stretch zone. Use measured moves to set disciplined trim points rather than chasing extremes. Laddering & fills: prefer a three-step ladder on entries (30%/40%/30%). Place the first tier near the retest VWAP or breakout wick, the second tier after partial confirmation on the 1H close, and the final add when OBV and ribbon expand. On exits, trim using the same ladder logic reversed — secure liquidity at structural clusters and avoid selling into thin post-announcement spikes. Timeframe alignment: require 30m/1h alignment for tactical entries and a daily confirmation before allocating swing size. Shorter frames can be used for scalps but only with ATR-based stops and tight target windows. Watchlist & on-chain signals: monitor contract-level activity, large wallet clustering and exchange inflows above normal baselines. A surge in approvals, large airdrop claims, or spike in staking unlocks are red flags for short-term supply. Conversely, increases in staking participation and bridges moving tokens off exchanges are bullish supply sinks. Execution discipline: document each trade with entry rationale, indicators used, size and outcome. Review trades weekly to tune thresholds, optimize ladder spacing and adapt to changing liquidity profiles. Discipline reduces emotional add-ins and preserves capital through volatile listing cycles. Quick checklist before pulling trigger: • Hourly close confirms direction. • Session volume/OBV confirm. • VWAP aligns on retest. • ATR justifies targets. • Orderbook depth supports entries. Practical example & sizing: $10,000 account risking 1% ($100). Enter initial leg sized to risk ≈$33 (0.33%) with a 3% stop; add after retest. Trim 30–50% at T1 and trail remainder with 1×ATR. Bottom line OPEN sits in a listing-driven decision zone: hourly close above $1.07 with rising volume opens a path to $1.16 → $1.30 (stretch $1.60). Failure below $0.78 risks $0.60 → $0.35. Trade only with confirmed signals and size to visible liquidity. $OPEN