Marieの‌価格ROSE

Centralized Exchange Holdings of $ETH Drop to a 9-Year Low, Tom Lee Says $ETH $ROSE from $30 to $1500 After Last Similar Low

#Bitcoin Network Hashrate $ROSE 4% in First Two Weeks of August: JPMorgan

$ROSE USDT – Bearish Breakdown Testing Lows ROSE is trading at $0.02756 (-5.87%), dropping from the $0.0315 high and now testing critical support at the $0.0275 zone. Sellers remain dominant, and a close below this level could accelerate the decline. Bearish Trade Setup (Short Idea): Entry Zone: 0.0275 – 0.0280 Target 1 (TP1): 0.0270 Target 2 (TP2): 0.0260 Target 3 (TP3): 0.0250 Stop Loss (SL): 0.0292 If $0.0270 support breaks, ROSE could slide further toward the $0.025 range. Only a reclaim above $0.0292 would ease the bearish outlook.

✅️ "Path to Altseason," which is a cyclical framework that crypto traders use to anticipate when altcoins (non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies) may see explosive gains compared to Bitcoin. Let’s break down the phases and their implications: Phase 1: $BTC Bitcoin Characteristics: Inflows of money primarily into Bitcoin, causing price surges. Investors are risk-averse early on, sticking to BTC as the "safest" crypto. Overlap signals: Some money trickles into Ethereum. Ethereum starts oscillating in performance relative to BTC and may begin outperforming. Implication: This phase reflects the early bull cycle where confidence returns, but risk appetite is still limited to Bitcoin. Phase 2: Ethereum Characteristics: Ethereum begins outperforming Bitcoin. Market chatter about "the flippening" (ETH overtaking BTC in market cap). Overlap signals: Capital rotation into large-cap altcoins (e.g., ADA, SOL, XRP). Implication: Risk appetite grows as traders diversify beyond Bitcoin into ETH, then begin considering other top projects. Phase 3: Large Caps Characteristics: ETH continues to outperform BTC. Large-cap altcoins go parabolic. Overlap signals: Even some smaller-cap altcoins with strong fundamentals begin pumping. Implication: Confidence in altcoins is now strong. Institutional and retail investors expand beyond ETH, spreading capital across the top 20–50 projects. Phase 4: Altseason Characteristics: Large caps blow off tops (extreme vertical moves). Mid, low, and micro-cap coins all pump together. Large caps outperform both BTC and ETH. Everything pumps regardless of fundamentals (parabolic retail frenzy). Meme coins dominate conversation, mania and euphoria peak. Implication: This is the climax of the cycle. Extreme greed drives irrational price action. Historically, this is followed by sharp corrections and the beginning of a bear market. Overall Analysis The framework reflects the liquidity rotation in crypto markets: Starts with BTC (safe play) → ETH (higher upside) → large caps (diversification) → small/micro caps (speculation). Each phase overlaps with the next, showing capital doesn’t leave one asset entirely but trickles down. Sentiment: Moves from cautious optimism → confidence → speculation → euphoria (often a market top). Risk: Each phase introduces more risk and volatility, peaking at Altseason. ✅ Takeaway for traders/investors: Early gains are often in BTC → ETH. Risk increases dramatically moving into large/mid/micro caps. Altseason = highest potential returns but also highest risk of blow-off top . Great — let’s map this “Path to Altseason” framework onto the two biggest modern crypto bull runs: 2017 and 2020–2021. 📊 2017 Bull Run (Classic Altseason Example) Phase 1: Bitcoin Timeline: Jan – Oct 2017 🔴What happened: Bitcoin dominated inflows, rallying from ~$1,000 in January to ~$6,000 by October. ETH and other alts lagged for most of this period. Overlap: By mid-2017, ETH started gaining attention (ICO boom). Phase 2: Ethereum $ETH Timeline: May – June 2017 What happened: Ethereum exploded from ~$50 in March to ~$400 by June. Narratives about ETH "flipping" BTC surfaced during the ICO frenzy. Overlap: Capital began rotating into large-cap alts like XRP, LTC, and DASH. Phase 3: Large Caps Timeline: Oct – Dec 2017 🔴What happened: ETH, $XRP , and $LTC outperformed BTC. XRP went parabolic (up ~1,000% in Dec alone). Large caps started leading. Phase 4: Altseason Timeline: Dec 2017 – Jan 2018 🔴What happened: EVERYTHING pumped — from large caps to micro caps. Even joke coins and obscure projects skyrocketed. Total mania: retail FOMO, mainstream news hype, huge social media presence. Result: Blow-off top. Bitcoin peaked at ~$20k (Dec 2017). Ethereum peaked ~$1.4k (Jan 2018). Altseason crashed hard in early 2018, starting a multi-year bear market. 📊 2020–2021 Bull Run (Two Altseasons) Phase 1: Bitcoin Timeline: Sep – Dec 2020 🔴What happened: Institutional inflows (MicroStrategy, Tesla). BTC surged from ~$10k to ~$40k by Jan 2021. Phase 2: Ethereum Timeline: Jan – April 2021 What happened: ETH started outperforming BTC. ETH went from ~$700 in Jan to ~$4,300 by May. Talk of "the flippening" returned. Overlap: Large caps (ADA, BNB, DOT, SOL) began huge runs. Phase 3: Large Caps Timeline: Feb – May 2021 What happened: Large caps went parabolic. BNB rose from ~$40 in Jan to ~$690 in May. ADA, SOL, DOT, and XRP all had massive rallies. Phase 4: Altseason #1 Timeline: April – May 2021 What happened: Everything pumped: memecoins (DOGE, SHIB) exploded. $DOGE hit ~$0.70 (700x from 2020 lows). Ethereum dominance surged; BTC dominance collapsed. Result: May 2021 crash (BTC fell from ~$64k → $30k). Short bear phase through summer. Mini Reset → Second Altseason Phase 1–3 Restart: BTC → ETH → large caps cycle repeated after July 2021. Phase 4 Altseason #2: Sep – Nov 2021: Solana, Avalanche, meme coins (SHIB, FLOKI) went insane. Total retail mania again. Result: BTC hit new ATH (~$69k). ETH peaked ~$4.9k. Blow-off top → full bear market in 2022. ✅ Key Takeaways Both 2017 and 2021 followed this 4-phase model almost perfectly. BTC leads → ETH outperforms → large caps pump → altseason mania. The end of altseason = blow-off top + retail euphoria → followed by brutal crashes. In 2021, the cycle happened twice due to huge liquidity and stimulus. Absolutely! Let’s take a look at where the 2025 crypto market currently sits in the “Path to Altseason” framework: 🔴🟢2025 Market Snapshot: 🔴Which Phase Are We In? Phase 1: Bitcoin Bitcoin is firmly established as the leader in 2025, having soared to new all-time highs—surpassing $120,000 in mid-July . Regulatory tailwinds and launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to drive institutional adoption . Conclusion: Phase 1 is well behind us, having served as the initial catalyst for this cycle. Phase 2: Ethereum Reports from FBS and CoinGecko show capital rotation underway: Ethereum has begun outperforming Bitcoin—a classic Phase 2 trigger . Ethereum ETFs have seen significant inflows, signaling growing institutional interest and easing volatility barriers . ETH outperformance, combined with rising altcoin market cap and falling Bitcoin dominance, further reinforces Phase 2 dynamics . Verdict: We are firmly in Phase 2: Ethereum outperformance. Momentum is building and pointing toward broader altcoin participation. Phase 3: Large Caps (Emerging) Several indicators suggest Phase 3 may already be starting: altcoin market cap has surged by over 50% since July, and analysts are projecting a potential full-scale altseason by September . Macro tailwinds are also in place—regulatory clarity, anticipated Fed rate cuts, institutional allocation—setting the stage for deeper capital rotation . Verdict: Signs are strong that Phase 3: Large-cap rotation is underway, even if not in full swing yet. Phase 4: Altseason (Not Yet Arrived) Altcoin Season Indexes (CoinMarketCap, Coinbase) remain below the 75% threshold, currently sitting around the low to mid-40s . Bitcoin dominance, though falling (~59%), hasn’t declined enough to confirm mass retail engagement or mania . Analysts expect altseason to peak in Q4 2025 or early 2026, not yet fully here . Verdict: Phase 4 has not arrived yet, though momentum is building toward it. 🔴 Where Are We Now? PhaseStatus in 2025 Phase 1: BitcoinComplete — BTC has led with historic highs and institutional flows. Phase 2: EthereumActive — ETH outperformance enabled by ETF inflows and institutional demand. Phase 3: Large CapsEmerging — capital is rotating into Layer-1s and large altcoins. Phase 4: AltseasonApproaching — not here yet, but signs point to a peak later this year. ■Big picture: We are transitioning from Phase 2 into Phase 3. Ethereum is outpacing Bitcoin, and large-cap altcoins are starting to reap the benefits. Market conditions—macro gains, ETF inflows, regulatory support—are aligning. All eyes are now on whether Phase 4: Altseason will kick off by late 2025 or spill into early 2026.

Why is The Crypto Market Down Today? Total crypto market cap declines $71 billion to $3.85 trillion amid geopolitical uncertainty; support levels at $3.81 trillion and $3.89 trillion are key. Bitcoin hovers above $115,000; RSI below 50 signals fading bullish momentum and potential drop to $112,256. Chainlink rises 9% to $24.65, Parabolic SAR indicates uptrend; potential resistance at $26.73 and $30.00, support at $22.63. The total crypto market cap (TOTAL) and Bitcoin (BTC) are noting a drop today, with the latter falling to $115,500 as the broader market conditions worsen. Altcoins, on the other hand, are performing rather well, moving against BTC, led by Chainlink (LINK), whose price rose by 9%. The Crypto Market Is In the Red The total crypto market cap dropped by $71 billion in the past 24 hours, settling at $3.85 trillion. The decline follows uncertainty sparked by the Trump-Putin Alaska meeting, which triggered risk-off sentiment. This shift highlights the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical events impacting investor confidence across digital assets. TOTAL now appears vulnerable to another decline, with downside risk pointing toward $3.81 trillion. Bitcoin’s weakness has led to a broader downturn, dragging altcoins with it. Should market conditions improve, TOTAL may reclaim the $3.89 trillion support level. This recovery could provide momentum for a push toward $4.01 trillion, signaling renewed optimism. Such a move would ease investor concerns and strengthen confidence. Should market conditions improve, TOTAL may reclaim the $3.89 trillion support level. This recovery could provide momentum for a push toward $4.01 trillion, signaling renewed optimism. Such a move would ease investor concerns and strengthen confidence. If Bitcoin rebounds from the $115,000 support, the crypto king could regain strength. A successful bounce may allow BTC to retest $117,261, with a breakout potentially flipping it into support. This scenario would open the path for a climb toward $120,000, reinforcing renewed optimism among traders. Chainlink Gains in 24 Hours Chainlink defied Bitcoin’s pullback, emerging as a top performer with a 9% gain. At press time, LINK trades at $24.65, showing strong momentum. The move highlights investor confidence in the altcoin’s resilience. The Parabolic SAR indicator currently sits below LINK’s candlesticks, confirming an active uptrend. This bullish signal suggests upward momentum remains intact. If buying pressure continues, Chainlink could break through $26.73 and extend its rally toward $30.00, reinforcing optimism. However, if selling pressure builds, LINK risks losing traction. A decline could push the price down to $22.63 support, with a further breakdown potentially dragging it to $19.88 or lower. Such a move would invalidate the bullish outlook and shift sentiment toward caution among traders. $BTC $LINK