Marieの‌価格ROSE

Centralized Exchange Holdings of $ETH Drop to a 9-Year Low, Tom Lee Says $ETH $ROSE from $30 to $1500 After Last Similar Low

#Bitcoin Network Hashrate $ROSE 4% in First Two Weeks of August: JPMorgan

$ROSE USDT – Bearish Breakdown Testing Lows ROSE is trading at $0.02756 (-5.87%), dropping from the $0.0315 high and now testing critical support at the $0.0275 zone. Sellers remain dominant, and a close below this level could accelerate the decline. Bearish Trade Setup (Short Idea): Entry Zone: 0.0275 – 0.0280 Target 1 (TP1): 0.0270 Target 2 (TP2): 0.0260 Target 3 (TP3): 0.0250 Stop Loss (SL): 0.0292 If $0.0270 support breaks, ROSE could slide further toward the $0.025 range. Only a reclaim above $0.0292 would ease the bearish outlook.

✅️ "Path to Altseason," which is a cyclical framework that crypto traders use to anticipate when altcoins (non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies) may see explosive gains compared to Bitcoin. Let’s break down the phases and their implications: Phase 1: $BTC Bitcoin Characteristics: Inflows of money primarily into Bitcoin, causing price surges. Investors are risk-averse early on, sticking to BTC as the "safest" crypto. Overlap signals: Some money trickles into Ethereum. Ethereum starts oscillating in performance relative to BTC and may begin outperforming. Implication: This phase reflects the early bull cycle where confidence returns, but risk appetite is still limited to Bitcoin. Phase 2: Ethereum Characteristics: Ethereum begins outperforming Bitcoin. Market chatter about "the flippening" (ETH overtaking BTC in market cap). Overlap signals: Capital rotation into large-cap altcoins (e.g., ADA, SOL, XRP). Implication: Risk appetite grows as traders diversify beyond Bitcoin into ETH, then begin considering other top projects. Phase 3: Large Caps Characteristics: ETH continues to outperform BTC. Large-cap altcoins go parabolic. Overlap signals: Even some smaller-cap altcoins with strong fundamentals begin pumping. Implication: Confidence in altcoins is now strong. Institutional and retail investors expand beyond ETH, spreading capital across the top 20–50 projects. Phase 4: Altseason Characteristics: Large caps blow off tops (extreme vertical moves). Mid, low, and micro-cap coins all pump together. Large caps outperform both BTC and ETH. Everything pumps regardless of fundamentals (parabolic retail frenzy). Meme coins dominate conversation, mania and euphoria peak. Implication: This is the climax of the cycle. Extreme greed drives irrational price action. Historically, this is followed by sharp corrections and the beginning of a bear market. Overall Analysis The framework reflects the liquidity rotation in crypto markets: Starts with BTC (safe play) → ETH (higher upside) → large caps (diversification) → small/micro caps (speculation). Each phase overlaps with the next, showing capital doesn’t leave one asset entirely but trickles down. Sentiment: Moves from cautious optimism → confidence → speculation → euphoria (often a market top). Risk: Each phase introduces more risk and volatility, peaking at Altseason. ✅ Takeaway for traders/investors: Early gains are often in BTC → ETH. Risk increases dramatically moving into large/mid/micro caps. Altseason = highest potential returns but also highest risk of blow-off top . Great — let’s map this “Path to Altseason” framework onto the two biggest modern crypto bull runs: 2017 and 2020–2021. 📊 2017 Bull Run (Classic Altseason Example) Phase 1: Bitcoin Timeline: Jan – Oct 2017 🔴What happened: Bitcoin dominated inflows, rallying from ~$1,000 in January to ~$6,000 by October. ETH and other alts lagged for most of this period. Overlap: By mid-2017, ETH started gaining attention (ICO boom). Phase 2: Ethereum $ETH Timeline: May – June 2017 What happened: Ethereum exploded from ~$50 in March to ~$400 by June. Narratives about ETH "flipping" BTC surfaced during the ICO frenzy. Overlap: Capital began rotating into large-cap alts like XRP, LTC, and DASH. Phase 3: Large Caps Timeline: Oct – Dec 2017 🔴What happened: ETH, $XRP , and $LTC outperformed BTC. XRP went parabolic (up ~1,000% in Dec alone). Large caps started leading. Phase 4: Altseason Timeline: Dec 2017 – Jan 2018 🔴What happened: EVERYTHING pumped — from large caps to micro caps. Even joke coins and obscure projects skyrocketed. Total mania: retail FOMO, mainstream news hype, huge social media presence. Result: Blow-off top. Bitcoin peaked at ~$20k (Dec 2017). Ethereum peaked ~$1.4k (Jan 2018). Altseason crashed hard in early 2018, starting a multi-year bear market. 📊 2020–2021 Bull Run (Two Altseasons) Phase 1: Bitcoin Timeline: Sep – Dec 2020 🔴What happened: Institutional inflows (MicroStrategy, Tesla). BTC surged from ~$10k to ~$40k by Jan 2021. Phase 2: Ethereum Timeline: Jan – April 2021 What happened: ETH started outperforming BTC. ETH went from ~$700 in Jan to ~$4,300 by May. Talk of "the flippening" returned. Overlap: Large caps (ADA, BNB, DOT, SOL) began huge runs. Phase 3: Large Caps Timeline: Feb – May 2021 What happened: Large caps went parabolic. BNB rose from ~$40 in Jan to ~$690 in May. ADA, SOL, DOT, and XRP all had massive rallies. Phase 4: Altseason #1 Timeline: April – May 2021 What happened: Everything pumped: memecoins (DOGE, SHIB) exploded. $DOGE hit ~$0.70 (700x from 2020 lows). Ethereum dominance surged; BTC dominance collapsed. Result: May 2021 crash (BTC fell from ~$64k → $30k). Short bear phase through summer. Mini Reset → Second Altseason Phase 1–3 Restart: BTC → ETH → large caps cycle repeated after July 2021. Phase 4 Altseason #2: Sep – Nov 2021: Solana, Avalanche, meme coins (SHIB, FLOKI) went insane. Total retail mania again. Result: BTC hit new ATH (~$69k). ETH peaked ~$4.9k. Blow-off top → full bear market in 2022. ✅ Key Takeaways Both 2017 and 2021 followed this 4-phase model almost perfectly. BTC leads → ETH outperforms → large caps pump → altseason mania. The end of altseason = blow-off top + retail euphoria → followed by brutal crashes. In 2021, the cycle happened twice due to huge liquidity and stimulus. Absolutely! Let’s take a look at where the 2025 crypto market currently sits in the “Path to Altseason” framework: 🔴🟢2025 Market Snapshot: 🔴Which Phase Are We In? Phase 1: Bitcoin Bitcoin is firmly established as the leader in 2025, having soared to new all-time highs—surpassing $120,000 in mid-July . Regulatory tailwinds and launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to drive institutional adoption . Conclusion: Phase 1 is well behind us, having served as the initial catalyst for this cycle. Phase 2: Ethereum Reports from FBS and CoinGecko show capital rotation underway: Ethereum has begun outperforming Bitcoin—a classic Phase 2 trigger . Ethereum ETFs have seen significant inflows, signaling growing institutional interest and easing volatility barriers . ETH outperformance, combined with rising altcoin market cap and falling Bitcoin dominance, further reinforces Phase 2 dynamics . Verdict: We are firmly in Phase 2: Ethereum outperformance. Momentum is building and pointing toward broader altcoin participation. Phase 3: Large Caps (Emerging) Several indicators suggest Phase 3 may already be starting: altcoin market cap has surged by over 50% since July, and analysts are projecting a potential full-scale altseason by September . Macro tailwinds are also in place—regulatory clarity, anticipated Fed rate cuts, institutional allocation—setting the stage for deeper capital rotation . Verdict: Signs are strong that Phase 3: Large-cap rotation is underway, even if not in full swing yet. Phase 4: Altseason (Not Yet Arrived) Altcoin Season Indexes (CoinMarketCap, Coinbase) remain below the 75% threshold, currently sitting around the low to mid-40s . Bitcoin dominance, though falling (~59%), hasn’t declined enough to confirm mass retail engagement or mania . Analysts expect altseason to peak in Q4 2025 or early 2026, not yet fully here . Verdict: Phase 4 has not arrived yet, though momentum is building toward it. 🔴 Where Are We Now? PhaseStatus in 2025 Phase 1: BitcoinComplete — BTC has led with historic highs and institutional flows. Phase 2: EthereumActive — ETH outperformance enabled by ETF inflows and institutional demand. Phase 3: Large CapsEmerging — capital is rotating into Layer-1s and large altcoins. Phase 4: AltseasonApproaching — not here yet, but signs point to a peak later this year. ■Big picture: We are transitioning from Phase 2 into Phase 3. Ethereum is outpacing Bitcoin, and large-cap altcoins are starting to reap the benefits. Market conditions—macro gains, ETF inflows, regulatory support—are aligning. All eyes are now on whether Phase 4: Altseason will kick off by late 2025 or spill into early 2026.