Satoshi Pumpomotoの‌価格BTC

Justified overconfidence Bloombeg's warning Peter Schiff, the infamous economist known for his long-standing dismissal of Bitcoin, has predicted that the next four years will be "much worse" for the leading cryptocurrency. Schiff confirms he believes the thesis that "Bitcoin is Digital Gold" has officially failed. Even though Bitcoin at $87,000 is historically high (compared to 2020 or 2023), Schiff argues it has lost purchasing power relative to Gold. He states Bitcoin is down 46% priced in gold from its November 2021 high. Schiff has been predicting Bitcoin's death since it was $300. Because he has been wrong for 15 years, his current analysis should be ignored. However, the gold bug always employs a "Greater Fool Theory" argument. He admits early buyers got rich, but claims they only did so because "later buyers will turn millions into pennies." He views Bitcoin as a Ponzi scheme where early entrants steal wealth from late entrants. He frames his obsession as altruistic, claiming that he frequently posts about BTC to "prevent people from losing money." Justified overconfidence Peter Schiff’s overconfidence is currently backed by hard market data and technical trends occurring in late 2025. For years, Schiff has argued that Bitcoin is a "risk asset" (like tech stocks) rather than a "safe haven" (like gold). In December 2025, the market is proving him right. 2025 has been a year of "flight to safety." In this environment, capital is rotating into Gold and Silver and out of or away from Bitcoin. Traditional hard assets are winning, while "digital" assets are lagging. He sees this as the ultimate stress test, and Bitcoin is failing it. Bloombeg's warning Schiff's warning is in line with the one recently issued by Bloomberg's Mike McGlone. The latter recently argued that Bitcoin has become "dead money", meaning that this is an investment that carries extreme risk but has stopped generating returns. In finance, an asset that is three times as dangerous as tech stocks but yields zero extra return over a total of five years is considered a failed trade. Capital flows to where it gets treated best, and right now, tech stocks are delivering better returns with less risk. If the massive hype of Wall Street adoption (ETFs) couldn't push Bitcoin to new sustainable highs relative to inflation or stocks, there are no "bullish narratives" left to drive the price up. The ammunition has been spent.

BitMEX Research has shared a retrospective analysis of the long-standing debate regarding quantum computing and its potential threat to Bitcoin. It contrasts discussions from the early days of Bitcoin (circa 2010) with the present day. Interestingly enough, BitMEX Research claims that the arguments happening today are nearly identical to those from 15 years ago. In the early days, some warned that the US government could break Bitcoin’s encryption (ECDSA) within 5 years. They urged an immediate switch to "post-quantum" algorithms. It has shared a threat from the BitcoinTalk forum that represents an early debate regarding the existential threat that quantum computing (QC) poses to Bitcoin. The discussion ranges from alarmist predictions of Bitcoin's death to skepticism regarding the feasibility of quantum technology. The thread begins with the premise that Quantum Computing acts as a "massive hammer" that could shatter current cryptographic algorithms, rendering Bitcoin useless. Several users (Kiba, Grondilu) argued that if QC becomes powerful enough to crack Bitcoin, it will also crack SSL, banking systems, and military secrets. A significant portion of the forum dismissed the threat as "science fiction" or "vaporware." One user noted that the most impressive feat of QC at the time was factoring the number 15, arguing that scaling this to break encryption was decades away. Users also called into question the legitimacy of D-Wave. The benefit of waiting If Bitcoin had panicked and switched to quantum-resistant encryption 10 or 15 years ago, it would have been a mistake, BitMEX Research argues. Early post-quantum cryptographic signatures were massive in terms of data size (often kilobytes in size). Implementing these early solutions would have "bloated" the blockchain, making transactions significantly larger, more expensive, and slower to process. By waiting, Bitcoin developers can now look at much more efficient technologies. A 350-byte signature is a major breakthrough. It is small enough to be practical for Bitcoin's block size limits. For context, standard Bitcoin signatures (ECDSA/Schnorr) are very small (~64 bytes). Early quantum-resistant schemes were thousands of bytes.

Mike McGlone, a senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, is raising a red flag about a metric that rarely gets as much attention as dollar prices but often tells the story earlier: how much gold oneBitcoin can actually buy. In his latest notes and charts, McGlone points to the Bitcoin-gold cross sitting near 20x on Dec. 22 and says the balance of risk is ugly. In essence, he's saying that it's more likely that Bitcoin's value will drop to 10x rather than rise to 30 times its current value in 2026. If that happens, the purchasingpower of Bitcoin compared to gold would be cut in half, even though the USD chart might not look as dramatic. Source: Mike McGlone McGlone is basically saying the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio acts like an early warning chart: when recession risk rises, this ratio tends to get pressured, and right now it’s shown next to the SP 500 and market volatility for a reason. The key takeaway from that frame is that stocks, volatility, and the Bitcoin/gold cross are still moving together more than people admit, with the correlation sitting near 0.5376, meaning it’s still one “risk-on, risk-off” package. $50,000 for Bitcoin in 2026 Ultimately, McGlone zooms out to a “where could the lows be” sketch for 2026: core CPI easing toward 1%, oil near $40, gasoline around $2, andBitcoin around $50,000. He’s not claiming dates and exact targets, he’s saying that if U.S. stocks fall about 10% and stay down instead of making it back to the "north," those are the kind of cycle-level prices that often show up when markets finally reset.

Ripple executive Reece Merrick has predicted that institutional adoption is going to accelerate at a rapid pace in 2026. "By end of 2026, this number will increase and every significant bank, asset manager, and payment network will have meaningful exposure," he said. Merrick is arguing that crypto is no longer an optional asset class, meaning that institutional investors have to embrace it in order to remain competitive. Traditional finance (TradFi) banks that do not offer crypto services will lose clients to those that do. If a customer cannot hold Bitcoin or stablecoins in their JP Morgan or Chase account, they will move their capital to a fintech competitor (like Coinbase or Revolut). "It’s no longer 'if.' It’s 'how fast' ... The train left the station," he said. For instance, banks were paralyzed because they didn't know if stablecoins would be classified as illegal securities. The GENIUS Act officially classified compliant stablecoins, including RLUSD, as permitted payment infrastructure. Banks like JPMorgan and Standard Chartered began integrating stablecoin rails directly into their backend. Asset managers also realized that tokenized Treasury bills of the likes of BlackRock's BUIDL could be used as collateral for trading on a round-the-clock basis. Ripple's great 2025 2025 is quite significant for Ripple since it finally put the years-long battle with the SEC to rest. "What stayed with me most was watching the entire global team rally with unbreakable focus and determination. Seeing that unity and refusal to be distracted, along with the facts, made me absolutely positive we would win, no question!" Merrick recalled on the fifth anniversary of the groundbreaking lawsuit. Ripple has effectively spent the last 12 months transforming from a payments company into a full-stack institutional infrastructure provider. This newfound regulatory clarity allowed the San Francisco-headquartered company to aggressively deploy its massive funds for strategic acquisitions of the likes of Hidden Road and GTreasury. RLUSD also became part of institutional payment flows, with its market cap surpassing $1 billion. Institutional clients are now minting millions in TBILL tokens on the XRP Ledger via OpenEden. A hedge fund can now hold its idle cash in Tokenized T-Bills on the XRP Ledger and earn a yield of up to 5%.