U.S. inflation data for March exceeded expectations, and the Federal Reserve is expected to only cut interest rates once or twice this year

The U.S. inflation data for March once again exceeded expectations across the board, with core CPI recording an unexpectedly high month-on-month increase of 0.4% for three consecutive months, and inflation persistence remains stubborn. Energy prices have returned to year-on-year positive growth, housing inflation continues to show stickiness, and a surge in auto insurance prices has led to a rebound in super-core inflation. Research reports predict that it will be difficult for the central axis of U.S. inflation to rebound significantly, but it is also challenging for the year-on-year reading of CPI to decline noticeably within this year. Meanwhile, the narrative of "interest rates remaining higher for longer" has not yet ended; it is expected that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in June this year and only reduce them one or two times within this year.