Before the PCE announcement, the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25BP in November is 96.1%
October 31, according to the CME “Fed Watch”: the probability that the Fed will cut 25 basis points in November is 96.1%, the probability of maintaining the current rate unchanged is 3.9%. The probability of keeping current rates unchanged by December is 1.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 29.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 69.7%.
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