Bitcoin faces under 10% chance of dropping below $75K

Bitcoin's (CRYPTO:BTC) recent price fluctuations have led analysts to assess its likelihood of dropping to $75,000 in the first quarter of 2025.

According to Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive, the probability of Bitcoin falling below this threshold has risen to 9.2%, a slight increase from 7.2% just a day prior.

This uptick in probability comes amid a broader market downturn that saw Bitcoin drop 6.5% to $97,906 on January 27, before recovering above the $100,000 mark.

Dawson attributes this increased probability to a spike in Bitcoin's implied volatility, which jumped from 52% to 76%.

This spike indicates heightened demand for put options as traders seek protection against potential declines.

Despite the recent volatility, Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $102,100, reflecting a general market sentiment that remains cautiously optimistic.

Bitfinex analysts have noted that Bitcoin's price movements are increasingly tied to broader macroeconomic trends rather than just its own market fundamentals.

"Bitcoin's price is less a standalone reflection of its market fundamentals and more tied to broader macroeconomic shifts," they stated.

This correlation suggests that Bitcoin is now firmly integrated into the landscape of risk assets.

Additionally, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has predicted that if Bitcoin does pull back toward the $70,000 to $75,000 range, it could trigger significant financial repercussions.

Hayes believes this scenario may lead to renewed money printing efforts, potentially driving Bitcoin's price up to $250,000 by the end of 2025.

At the time of reporting, the Bitcoin (BTC) price was $102,701.