Institutional Investors vs. ETF Expectations: The Risk Facing XRP’s Value

XRP Sellers Maintain Dominance as Upcoming Spot ETF Rulings May Impact Price and Trading Activity

In late September 2025, XRP’s price movement highlighted a battle between significant institutional sell-offs and growing optimism over the introduction of U.S.-listed XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The token dropped by almost 5% between September 22 and 23, wiping out about $11 billion in market capitalization as the REX-Osprey ETF—the first of its kind in the U.S.—launched.

ETF, achieved a record-breaking $37.7 million in trading volume on its opening day. Despite this milestone, XRP ended the session at $2.83, struggling to maintain crucial support levels due to substantial institutional selling. Trading volume soared to 656.1 million, six times the usual daily figure, signaling widespread profit-taking and the emergence of a bearish channel with lower highs at $2.856 and lower lows at $2.83.

Technical signals reinforce the prevailing bearish trend. XRP’s value slid from $2.87 to $2.77 within 24 hours, forming a downward channel with major resistance at $2.87 and support at $2.77. The token’s repeated failure to reclaim $2.87 during intraday trading suggests a potential decline toward $2.75–$2.70 if $2.82 does not hold. On-chain analytics show $812 million in large-holder transactions during this period, intensifying short-term price swings. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s market share climbed to 57.7%, indicating a shift of capital away from altcoins as $1.7 billion in crypto derivatives were liquidated, with 90% impacting long positions.

Decisions pending on spot XRP ETFs could significantly alter the token’s future. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is currently reviewing several proposals from Grayscale, Bitwise, WisdomTree, and others, with verdicts anticipated between October 17 and November 14, 2025. Approval could pave the way for institutional capital and reshape XRP’s market landscape. Analysts point out that Ethereum’s ETF launch in May 2025 attracted $1.3 billion in assets under management within two months, implying XRP could see similar growth if regulatory approval is granted. However, derivatives data presents a mixed picture: open interest in XRP futures reached $1.8 billion, and implied volatility jumped to 95% ahead of key SEC decisions, reflecting expectations of major price movements.

Price predictions vary widely based on ETF outcomes. In a bearish scenario, XRP could drop to $2.20–$2.26 if it loses support below $2.77, with machine learning models forecasting an average price of $2.70 by September 30. A neutral or slightly bullish outlook sees a potential recovery to $3.30 if large holders continue to buy near $2.81–$2.82. On the other hand, a strong breakout above $3.00–$3.10 could spark a rally toward $3.70–$4.00, driven by ETF approvals and increased institutional interest. Long-term projections, such as those from xAI’s Grok model, estimate XRP could reach $50–$100 by 2035 if ETFs sustain demand, equating to a $3–6 trillion market capitalization.

The regulatory timeline in October 2025 is seen as a crucial turning point. The SEC’s ruling on XRP ETFs could either confirm the token’s appeal to institutions or reignite regulatory doubts. Observers caution that approval may not trigger an immediate price spike but could set a foundation for ongoing demand. Institutional investment, combined with Ripple’s legal clarity and its use in cross-border payments, are considered essential for broader XRP adoption. Nonetheless, broader economic factors—such as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies and global risk appetite—will also play a role in ETF performance. For now, XRP is trading in a narrow range around $2.83, with market participants watching October’s regulatory deadlines and on-chain activity for signs of the next move.