Dogecoin Faces Its Toughest Q4 In Years — Can a Late Bounce Save 2025?

Dogecoin price trades near $0.17, struggling to hold its structure as 2025 nears its end. The coin has spent much of this quarter drifting lower, hinting that its usual year-end strength may be missing this time. Traders who have come to expect strong Q4 performances from Dogecoin are watching closely, hoping for a late turnaround. But the market’s tone looks very different from the last few years.

The reason behind this softer Q4 lies in what’s happening beneath the surface — among holders, whales, and traders who once built Dogecoin’s biggest rallies.

Holders and Whales Are Draining Support

To understand why this quarter feels heavier, it helps to look back at Dogecoin’s consistent Q4 streak. The meme coin usually finishes the year in green — gaining 14.2% in 2022, 44.2% in 2023, and 176.6% in 2024. But 2025’s pattern is breaking down fast, and much of that weakness links to on-chain holder behavior.

Dogecoin’s HODL Waves, a metric that shows how long investors keep their coins, point to declining confidence.

• Short-term holders (1–3 months) peaked at 17.47% of supply in January but now hold just 7.24%.
• Long-term holders (1–2 years), who held 40.32% in July, now control only 21.87% of the supply.

This steady decline means fewer coins are sitting quietly in wallets — more are back in circulation, increasing the risk of selling pressure.

Whale activity strengthens that view.

• Wallets holding 10 million to 100 million Dogecoin have been selling sharply since October 11, cutting their stash from 24.61 billion to 20.33 billion Dogecoin. At the current DOGE price of $0.17, that’s a reduction of roughly $730 million in value.
• The largest group, those with over 1 billion Dogecoin, has traded in and out all year without forming a clear buying trend.
• The only steady accumulation comes from mid-tier whales holding 100 million to 1 billion Dogecoin, who have increased their balance from 27.68 billion to 32.38 billion since October 28.

The problem is that these whale groups are moving in opposite directions. Without alignment among large holders, price momentum struggles to build, making this Q4 weaker than any since 2020, that too, despite the ETF buzz.

Volume Breakdown and Derivatives Bias Add Pressure

The weekly On-Balance Volume (OBV) chart — which tracks if price moves are supported by real buying — has broken below its trend line for the first time since early 2025.

When OBV breaks down, it means price rebounds are happening without solid volume. In other words, the bounces aren’t being supported by genuine inflows — a sign that rallies could quickly fade.

Dogecoin’s derivative data adds to this caution. On Gate.io, one of the largest perpetual markets, the short liquidation leverage totals $776.75 million, while long positions stand at just $151.77 million. That’s more than five times as many shorts as longs, showing how traders are positioned against Dogecoin. This data is for the next 30 days, going deep into December.

While that extreme imbalance is bearish, it can also create a short squeeze setup. If prices rise even slightly, some shorts could be forced to close, driving a temporary spike. But without volume support from OBV, such a move would likely stall near major resistance.

Dogecoin Price And The Last Line of Defense Near $0.17

Dogecoin’s weekly chart still fits inside an ascending channel that began in April 2025, though barely. The structure remains technically bullish, but the price now sits right on its lower trend line — around $0.17.

If this support breaks and the DOGE price closes its weekly candle lower, the next zone lies near $0.15. That would also mark the first complete breakdown of Dogecoin’s weekly structure in over seven months.

However, the RSI on the same timeframe suggests some chance of recovery.

Between October 6 and November 10, the price made a higher low, while RSI made a lower low — a hidden bullish divergence. This pattern often signals that the broader trend may still have one more leg up.

If the channel support holds and the RSI pattern plays out, Dogecoin could attempt a 33% rebound toward $0.22. That level aligns with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement mark. The rebound theory could get some push if the Bitwise Spot ETF launches by the end of November, driven by the auto approval process.

Holding above $0.17 and reclaiming $0.22 would allow Dogecoin to limit Q4 damage — maybe even close 2025 in mild green. But losing the channel would end its multi-quarter bullish setup, setting up a drop toward $0.15 or even lower by the end of 2025.