ETC rises by 0.58% as technical indicators remain mixed, with recent backtesting pointing to a possible short-term mean reversion.

As of November 12, 2025, ETC experienced a 0.58% increase over the past 24 hours, reaching $15.68. This comes despite a 12.28% decrease over the previous week and a 37.31% loss over the past year. The recent steep downturn has caught the attention of both traders and analysts, with technical signals offering mixed messages. Although the daily uptick hints at some short-term steadiness, the overall trend of falling

and prevailing bearish outlook persists.

In the last month, ETC has struggled to recover, slipping by 0.95%. This suggests that any immediate upward movement may face difficulty gaining significant momentum. Experts believe the recent 24-hour rise could be attributed to brief short-covering or algorithm-driven trades, but they warn it is unlikely to mark the start of a lasting recovery. The nearly 38% drop over the past year highlights ongoing challenges for this asset, with investors remaining hesitant to commit funds without clear positive drivers.

ETC’s price has been especially turbulent over the last week, falling more than 12% from its recent high. This sharp drop has triggered several technical signals indicating the asset may be oversold, though such signals can sometimes precede further declines in a weak market. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently near important support points, implying a reversal could occur, but also emphasizing the vulnerability of any upward movement. Traders are closely watching resistance levels to determine whether a reversal or continued downward trend will follow.

Backtest Hypothesis

A recent backtest examining ETC’s historical reactions to steep declines offers insights for short-term strategies. The study reviewed 24 cases where ETC’s price fell by at least 10% in a single day between January 22, 2022, and October 11, 2025. Results indicate that these sharp drops are often followed by brief rebounds.

On average, cumulative returns turn positive within the first day and reach a peak of about +3% around the 20-day mark, outperforming a broad benchmark by 1.8 percentage points. The success rate remains above 60% for four to seven days after the event and stays above 58% through day 21 before tapering off. However, after 25 days, performance tends to decline, suggesting that the recovery is usually short-term.

These findings point to a moderate mean-reversion approach—holding positions for three to ten days may present a better risk-reward balance than holding for the long term after a 10% daily drop. Due to significant variability across events, careful position sizing and risk controls are crucial. This strategy is not a bet on a prolonged rally but rather a tactical method to benefit from temporary rebounds within a generally bearish market environment.