Oil Consumption Expected to Increase Until 2050: Growth Driven by AI, Transportation, and Petrochemical Industries

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has updated its long-term forecast, now projecting that global demand for oil and gas may continue through 2050. This marks a significant change from previous expectations that fossil fuel use would reach its peak within this decade, according to a

. The IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook, published in November 2025, highlights a major transformation in energy markets, shaped by shifting geopolitical factors, technological progress, and the uneven advancement of clean energy initiatives.

Based on the IEA’s current policies scenario, oil consumption is anticipated to climb to 113 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2050, representing a 13% rise from 2024 figures, as referenced in a

. This adjustment from earlier predictions of an imminent peak is attributed to ongoing demand in industries such as transportation, petrochemicals, and new uses like AI-powered data centers. Additionally, global energy needs are expected to increase by 90 exajoules by 2035, with electricity usage growing faster than overall energy demand, according to a . The IEA credits this growth to expanding electrification, including heating, cooling, and AI infrastructure, which now make up a substantial portion of total energy consumption.

Producers outside OPEC are set to play a vital role in adapting to these changes. A

points out that Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina are expected to lead a new surge in cost-effective oil production through 2030, with South American ventures making up nearly 60% of new conventional oil output. Brazil’s offshore pre-salt fields, managed by , along with Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale formation, are projected to compensate for slower U.S. shale expansion, adding 560,000 bpd of crude and condensate by 2030. Radhika Bansal, Vice President of Upstream Research at Rystad, noted that ongoing investment in these areas will be crucial to bridging supply gaps that may emerge after the mid-2030s.

At the same time, India is becoming a major force behind rising global energy consumption. The IEA indicates that India’s energy use will increase by more than 15 exajoules by 2035, driven by rapid urban growth, industrialization, and a sharp rise in vehicle numbers, as mentioned in a

. The nation’s transition to cleaner energy has accelerated, with non-fossil fuel power capacity on the grid reaching 50% in 2025—five years ahead of its 2030 goal. This progress is supported by a 1:4 investment ratio favoring renewables over fossil fuels, and solar PV has drawn $113 billion in total investment since 2015.

Despite these positive trends, the IEA cautions that the world’s energy infrastructure is not yet ready for the swift increase in electricity demand, which is projected to jump by 40% over the next ten years, according to a

. Renewable sources, especially solar, are expected to expand more rapidly than any other, but coal and oil consumption are unlikely to reach their highest point before 2030. The agency also observes a renewed interest in natural gas projects, spurred by changes in U.S. policy and growing LNG capacity, which could hit 1.02 trillion cubic meters by 2050, as outlined in the Reuters report.

The report emphasizes the challenge of simultaneously meeting energy demands and climate objectives. Although investments in renewables now surpass those in oil production, the IEA estimates that 730 million people still lack access to electricity, and nearly one-fourth of the world’s population depends on inefficient cooking methods. Fatih Birol, the IEA’s Executive Director, pointed out that rising electricity demand is no longer limited to developing nations, as advanced economies are also experiencing increased consumption, according to the Reuters report.