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On-chain data shows that the Lighter team transferred 250 million LIT tokens (approximately 25%) of the total supply of 1 billion tokens from one token contract to another. The fact that this transfer happened recently has reinforced market expectations that this is the share allocated for the first airdrop. The team had previously indicated a 25-30% range for the initial distribution. Pre-market pricing also supports this expectation. In the pre-launch market, Lighter’s fully diluted value (FDV) is priced at approximately $3.3–$3.5 billion, which points to $3.3–$3.5 per LIT. If the 25% carried over was indeed reserved for the airdrop, then at current pre-market prices, the token distribution pool could exceed $800 million. Related News Galaxy Digital, Which Manages Billions of Dollars, Reveals Its Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana Predictions for 2026 In terms of airdrop mathematics, a pool of 250 million LIT, assuming a total of 12–12.5 million points, translates to approximately 20–21 LIT per point. This translates to around $66–70 per point, depending on the token price. On the other hand, expectations regarding the launch timing have also begun to become clearer. According to Polymarket data, the probability of Lighter not holding a TGE (Token Generation Event) in 2025 is priced at 35%, while the most likely launch date is December 29, 2025. This scenario, along with expectations of an airdrop, has increased investor interest. *This is not investment advice. Follow our Telegram and Twitter account now for exclusive news, analytics and on-chain data!

🚨 250M $Lit just moved on-chain! LIT is the token behind Lighter (perp DEX), a competitor to $ASTER and $HYPE No announcement from the team yet, but context matters: • Coinbase has already added Lighter to its roadmap • Polymarket shows Dec 29 as the top airdrop date (40%) Definitely worth watching! 👀

Good Morning! 11 Days Until New Year: Here's Your Daily Alpha: 1️⃣ Lighter ($LIT) Community researchers spotted a 250M $LIT token transfer from the team. Many believe these could be airdrop tokens (25% allocation). TGE expected before Christmas, Polymarket odds sitting at 90%. Project backed by Founders Fund, Ribbit & Robinhood at $1.5B valuation. 2️⃣ Doma x Base Fresh news! Doma Protocol just launched its Names Marketplace on the Base app. Over 40 million DNS domains coming onchain. You can now buy domains with $USDC or $ETH directly in Base. Backed by Paradigm ($25M Series A) and Coinbase Ventures. 3️⃣ Espresso: Presto Phase 2 Cross-chain NFT mint is live on RARI Chain + ApeChain. No bridging needed, powered by Espresso's Presto technology. Mint price: 0.001 ETH. Equal 20% chance for each themed NFT. Check Rarible for the mint page. 4️⃣ Ethereal DEX USDe Trading Rewards program reportedly live: 25% of fees going to rewards weekly. Estimated APR around 27%. All open positions count. Built on Ethena Network with sub-20ms execution. DYOR on official page for exact details. 5️⃣ Soneium Score New season is live. Earn the seasonal badge by reaching Score 80 or higher. Previous season badges available to claim. Sony's L2 keeps building, don't sleep on this one. 6️⃣ Edgen Badges Elite Badge: Finish top 3,000 on Aura Leaderboard OG Badge: Have at least 1 Aura before December 31 snapshot Badges drop January 1. Start farming Aura now. ⚠️ Note : LI.FI Solana validator claim couldn't be verified: skip this one until official confirmation.

Why Polymarket is wrong about Lighter's valuation Polymarket predicts a Lighter valuation of approximately $3 billion with $23 million in total volume, which is very high. But if you look at the market, you'll see some fundamental inconsistencies. Let's take a closer look. --------- I used a ratio that evaluates the FDV/TVL ratio. TVL is one of the most important metrics for any exchange, both PerpDEX and CEX, indirectly determining the level of trust in the protocol and is more stable than OI. That's why ratios based on it are highly accurate. For example, Hyperliquid's FDV/TVL ratio is 6.64, the highest among PerpDEX exchanges, representing the current leader. However, the ratios of other market players are close, in the range of 5-6. For example, Aster and Apex. Avantis stands out against this backdrop with a valuation of 2.59. We can also estimate the current fair value for some tokenless PerpDEXs - Ostium and Reya. Ostium recently closed a $20M round at a valuation of $250M with a TVL of ~$50M. While this isn't a market valuation, many large VC investors have supported the project, confirming that the current FDV/TVL ratio of 5 is the market average. Similarly, Reya raised $3M in its ICO on Coinlist with a TVL of $30M and a valuation of $50M. The sale closed successfully with 4,000 investors. This can also be considered a fair valuation, with some caveats. These case studies confirm that an FDV/TVL ratio of 5 is a fair market ratio. ---------- Why the coefficients for some PerpDEXs shouldn't be considered 1. Drift - A Solana-based PerpDEX with many other DeFi products in its ecosystem. Solana has little popularity in the PerpDEX space among its users, most of whom are meme-oriented. 2. Jupiter - Same as Drift, but with an even larger scale of products, making it difficult to separate the PerpDEX component of their valuations. 3. dYdX and GMX - ex-leading older PerpDEXs with numerous technical and business issues. These projects have fallen by the wayside of the current PerpDEX trend. 4. MYX - fake metrics and an artificial created valuation resulting in an FDV/TVL of 106. ---------- Fair valuation of Lighter I determined that the average FDV/TVL is 5. Based on this, we can predict that Lighter's valuation should be: $1.45B * 5 = $7.26B But this is only the current valuation. The launch of spot trading will add an additional TVL. - Polymarket values ​​Lighter's TGE at $3B - The team stated that they would distribute 25%-30% for point farming This means that $750M - $900M will enter the market. LIT will most likely be issued as an ERC-20 token, rather than directly into exchange balances like HYPE. This means that 40%-60% will go to Lighter spot, adding at least $400M-$500M, and Lighter's TVL will approach $2B. Because of this, the LIT valuation based on the new data should be: $2B * 5 = $10B. If we apply the HL coefficient to Lighter, its valuation will be $13.2B. P.S. It is very important that LIT go to Lighter and not other CEXs. I'm sure the team has already developed mechanics for this, which we will learn about in the coming weeks. --------- My another analysis confirms that Lighter's valuation should be in the $10B-$12B range. Anything below is buy and hold, IMO. Not Financial Advice