
Lawaliabdulmudallib
2025/08/19 09:27
BAYANI AKAN WANNAN BULL RUN DIN
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Yadda Bond da Bond yield yake aiki.
Yana daga cikin abinda kesa a shiga bear market koh bull run. Duk wanda ya saurari live din jiya nayi bayani akansa, haka a Trading square shima.
Yanzu bashin da kekan US yana dayawa, kuma mutane sun fara jin tsoron cigaba da bawa US rancan kudi, saboda tsoron cigaban tashin inflation( tunda dama saboda tsoron inflation dinne yasa suke rantawa US kudin, kaga indai US bazasu iyaba, dole sai dai a qara musu % din bond yield din, wanda hakan zai iyawa US tsadan biya).
Solution dayace ta ragewa US, shine su fara QE, indai sun fara QE, zaisa bashin da ake binsu ya ragu, sannan bond yield( % na kudin riba da suke bawa mutane) shima dole ya ragu, in hakan kuwa ya faru, inflation zai qara sama, wanda hakan zai tilastawa masu wannan kudin su fara niman alternative source of hedge against inflation, wannan ne zaisa dole suyi developing risk appetitite, ta considering risk on assets, irinsu stock da, crypto .
Uwa uba, yanzu GPD din US a negative yake, wannan ka iya sa tsoron shiga recession, saboda export dinsu ya ragu, tunda dama kamar yadda na nake fada, majority na products din da US suke sai dawa duniya, daga china ake bugasu, yanzu kuma an sakawa products din china haraji a US kamar yadda itama china ta rama, sai dai abin yafi illata US. Shi kuma powell tsoronsa daya shine, baisan yayi cutting rate abin yasa inflation ya qaru sosai, saboda a wannan gabar ake yanzu , due to Tarrif .
Yanzu matsala hudu ke gaban US :
1. Inflation
2. Recession ans GDP yana qasa
3. High debt da High bond yield
4. Unemployment rate increase.
In akai cutting rate, inflation zai saurin qaruwa, saboda tarrif, inkuma akai increasing rate, zai qara watsa GDP din US, wanda hakan shima already andade ana hasashensa , zai iya fin inflation karfin zuwama, sannan zaisa a qara samun rashin aikinyi, sannan government bazasu iya samun kudi sosai ba, saboda companies din qasar baswa expanding, hasalima shrinking(matsewa) suke, saboda ba daman ranto kudin da zaisa a iya qara producing more goods din da zaisa a sanu qarin ribar da government zata iya taxing, saboda kaso .ai tsoka daga source na revenue din US yana zuwa daga Tax ne, kaga kuwa indai company din qasa basu samu wal-walan kudi ba, toh ba halin qara producing.
QT(Quantitative Tightening) din da akai daga 2022 zuwa yanzu shine yaja, saboda anyi over fighting inflation, daga 9%, zuwa yanzu da yake 2.7%, Powell yaso inda ya fara cutting rate a 2024 ya cigaba har izuwa yanzu, amma tarrif din da Trump ya fara yasa yaji tsoron cigaba da hakan, wanda hakan shine daidai.
Yanzu government bata da daman cigaba da QT, saboda masu ranta mata kudin yawanci sun fara nuna alamar a qara musu bond yield %, saboda tsoron tarrif. Wannan yasa dole US ta samun hanyar rage wannan yield bond % din, hanyar ka da ake amfani dashi shine printing din kudi, tunda dama basu da kudin, da'ace suna dashi, da basu nime rancen ba.
Shi kuma printing dun kudin zaisa inflation ya qaru, saboda wannan dalilin ne yakesa masu kudi dole suma su shigo stock market da crypto a dama dasu inba haka ba, su zasuyi asara, tunda government sun rage yield bond, kuma yield bond bai isa ya iya karawa da inflation din dake zuwaba, wannan yakesa a samu bull run, kowa dole yabi, da mai kudi da mara kudi.
Kamar yadda na dade ina fada muku, bull run zaizo, da yazo tun daga 2024 da aka fara rate cut, amma saboda tsarin trump na tarrif, shine dalilin dayasa Powell shikuma yaqi cutting rate, da ace ancigaba da cutting rate din, da market din yayi bull run irin na 2020 zuwa 2021, amma wannan karan sai yayi kamada na 2017, dukda ya dan banbanta dana 2017 saboda , ba'a samu irin delayance din da aka samu a wannan cycle din ba, so wannan ya danyi kamada na 2017, amma akwai banbanci sosai, saboda interest rate din 2026 ( wanda yayi dai dai da 2024 na wannan cycle din)
Cigaba 👇👇