The stock market is keeping the U.S. economy afloat while jobs stay flat and politics add more uncertainty. Consumer spending in August beat forecasts and incomes rose, even as many expected the country to already be near recession.
Households and companies kept buying big items. Inflation was muted. Housing surprised with new home sales hitting a three-year high. In earlier years, this kind of momentum came from stimulus checks, low rates, and liquidity from the Federal Reserve.
Today, it comes from Wall Street and the wealth effect of record-breaking indexes.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said Friday:
“I do think that goes to the bounce in the stock market and the wealth effect. I think all of the spending is coming from the well-to-do high-income high-net-worth households that are seeing their stock portfolios are up and they’re feeling a lot better off and they’re spending.”
The rally has been steady all year. Artificial intelligence investment pushed demand, and industrial and communications giants added strength. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained more than 9%. The Nasdaq Composite is up 23%.
Consumers often feel better when stocks rise and unemployment is low. Yet sentiment tracked by the University of Michigan is down 23% since January, when President Donald Trump returned to the White House.
Consumer mood divides as market climbs
In September, the Michigan gauge fell another 5.3%. Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, explained, “Sentiment for consumers with larger stock holdings held steady in September, while for those with smaller or no holdings, sentiment decreased.”
The market has hit repeated records this month. Data from the St. Louis Fed show the top 10% of earners hold 87% of the entire market. Those investors are secure, but it shows the risks. Zandi added:
“The economy’s very vulnerable if the stock market does turn south, for whatever reason. People start seeing red on their screens and not green on their screens and the savings rate goes up not down. In the current context of no job growth, that’s recession.”
Valuation worries loom. FactSet reported the S&P 500 trades at 22.5 times expected earnings for the next year. That is above the five-year average of 19.9 and the 10-year average of 18.6. Despite that, consumer spending in August rose 0.6%, Commerce Department figures showed Friday.
Adjusted for inflation, spending increased 0.4%. Inflation still runs above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Core inflation is stuck at 2.9%. But monthly numbers match earlier forecasts, leaving the Fed on track for an October cut and maybe another in December.
Growth speeds up while risks stay close
Gross domestic product expanded at a 3.8% annualized pace in the second quarter, a revision that was half a point higher than before. The Atlanta Fed raised its estimate for the third quarter to 3.9%, 0.6 point more than last week.
Durable goods orders surged. New home sales jumped 20%. A spike in jobless claims earlier this month was only temporary. Layoffs stayed low, though payroll growth is flat. This suggests stability, but it is still driven mostly by wealthy consumers.
Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet, said , “Often, when people feel pessimistic about the near-future economy, they begin reigning in spending, but that hasn’t been the case thus far. In fact, the strength of the consumer is credited with keeping the economy strong for the past handful of years, despite high inflation, high [interest] rates and great uncertainty.”
She warned that the economy sits on a knife’s edge. Large groups of people are not sharing in the stock boom, and overall sentiment is at levels tied to past recessions. “Wealth provides some insulation from perceived economic volatility, and investors have been largely doing OK,” Renter said.
She added that, “Consumers are attuned to the current economic risks, inflation and labor market weakness. This could be due to first-hand experiences food prices rose significantly last month, or because they’re on edge from headlines tracking key economic data. In any case, people aren’t feeling great about the economy, their place within it or where it’s all headed.”
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