JPMorgan analyst: Fed may cut rates in September

#BTC Bob Michele, chief investment officer of JPMorgan's fixed income division, recently described the Fed's current rate hike cycle as "the most aggressive and harmful pace of tightening in history. Interest rate shocks are being delivered to the financial system on a massive scale. 

Michele said that a series of rate hikes will lead to a mild but "significant" recession from the end of the year, and that the Fed will begin to cut rates in September because data emerging before then will show that the U.S. economy has "one foot in contraction territory. He predicted that inflation will be below 3% when the Fed starts cutting rates. 

Historically, it takes an average of 13 months from a Fed rate hike to a recession," he explained. We expect the last Fed rate hike this time will be in May, then the recession will come in November and December. The Fed will usually start cutting rates in the middle of a recession, which is why we're predicting September.