Will Bitcoin Enter The Danger Zone as Fed Rate Decision Looms ?

“It’s officially Fed week, the week we’ve all been waiting for,” exclaimed macroeconomics outlet The Kobeissi Letter on March 17.

The US Central Bank will make its highly anticipated announcement on March 20, which will set the tone for the US’s economic outlook going forward.

Key Events This Week:

1. Housing Starts data – Tuesday

2. Fed Interest Rate Decision – Wednesday

3. Fed Press Conference – Wednesday

4. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – Thursday

5. Existing Home Sales data – Thursday

6. Fed Chair Powell Speaks – Friday

It’s officially Fed…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 17, 2024

 

Rate Cut Unlikely

According to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged is as high as 99%.

For the first time this year, markets now only see three interest rate cuts in 2024, reported Kobeissi, which added that the odds of a rate cut this week are less than 2% and odds of a rate cut in May are down to around 7%.

Markets anticipated as many as seven rate cuts in 2024 just three months ago, it added before stating:

“As inflation data begins to rise again, three rate cuts is beginning to feel optimistic.”

Interest rates in the US are currently 5.5%, which has been the case since July 2023 as the central bank grapples with inflation.

In addition to the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom, Japan, and other nations will also announce interest rate decisions this week, so market volatility is expected.

Bitcoin Into The Danger Zone?

Bitcoin and crypto markets have been buoyed by institutional interest following spot ETF launches in the US. However, as daily ETF inflows begin to fall , this fervor could be waning as the halving approaches.

On March 17, crypto trader and analyst ‘Rekt Capital’ wrote that Bitcoin would officially enter the “Danger Zone” this week, where historical pre-halving retraces have begun.

Historically, BTC has performed these retraces between two and four weeks before the halving. In 2020, this retrace was -20% deep, and in 2016, this retrace was -40% deep, he noted.

#BTC

In 3 days, Bitcoin will officially enter the “Danger Zone” (orange) where historical Pre-Halving Retraces have begun

Historically, Bitcoin has performed Pre-Halving Retraces 14-28 days before the Halving

In 2020, this retrace was -20% deep

In 2016, this retrace was -40%… pic.twitter.com/t0EHA6bpWY

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) March 16, 2024

 

BTC has already fallen 7.7% from its March 14 all-time high of $73,738 and was trading at $68,600 at the time of writing.