China's central bank today announced its most aggressive stimulus measures since the pandemic, in an attempt to revive the country's slowing economy and bring it back within the government's growth target.
But analysts warn that without additional fiscal support, these measures may not be enough to overcome the country's deflationary slump and structural challenges.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a sweeping package of interest rate cuts and funding increases to stimulate the world’s second-largest economy. The moves come after a string of disappointing economic data raised concerns about a prolonged recession. The PBOC’s actions mark the latest effort to restore confidence in the face of weak consumer and business demand, but analysts question whether the stimulus will effectively revive growth.
“This is the PBOC’s most significant stimulus package since the early days of the pandemic,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, an analyst at Capital Economics. But Evans-Pitchard said “it may not be enough on its own,” suggesting more fiscal stimulus would be needed to meet China’s official growth target of around 5% for this year.
The measures have prompted a positive response in financial markets, with Chinese stocks and bonds rising and Asian markets reaching their highest levels in 2.5 years. The yuan has also risen to its highest level in 16 months against the US dollar. PBOC Chairman Pan Gongsheng has outlined plans to lower borrowing costs, provide more liquidity and ease households’ mortgage repayment burdens.
Key actions include cutting banks’ reserve requirement ratios (RRR) by 50 basis points and freeing up about 1 trillion yuan ($142 billion) for new loans. Pan hinted that the RRR could be cut by another 0.25 to 0.5 points later this year, depending on market liquidity. The PBOC will also cut the seven-day reverse repo rate by 0.2 points to 1.5%, among other rate cuts.
“This move probably came a little late, but better late than never,” said Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis, stressing that a lower rate environment is needed to boost confidence in the economy.
Major investment banks including Goldman Sachs, Nomura, UBS and Bank of America recently lowered their 2024 growth forecasts for China.
*This is not investment advice.
