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Bitcoin price may test short-term holders with $61.6K drop

Bitcoin price may test short-term holders with $61.6K drop

GrafaGrafa2024/10/10 03:45
By:Mahathir Bayena

Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO:BTC) price has remained within a tight range between $63,600 and $62,843 over the past 36 hours, putting short-term holders (STH) at potential risk. 

According to data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin is currently below its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) but remains above the 200-day EMA on the four-hour chart. 

Analysts have noted that Bollinger Bands are showing signs of overselling, indicating an increase in short-term volatility.

Burak Kesmeci, an analyst at CryptoQuant, highlighted that Bitcoin's STH may experience significant pressure if the price falls below $61,600. 

Kesmeci points out that the average cost for short-term holders with positions of 1-3 months and 3-6 months is $61,633 and $64,459, respectively. 

If Bitcoin’s price drops below these levels, it could trigger panic selling among STH, potentially leading them to sell at a loss.

Recent data from CryptoQuant's STH Net-Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) chart shows that many short-term holders are barely making a profit at current price levels. 

The STH-NUPL chart is just above zero, indicating that most short-term holders are near breakeven.

In contrast, long-term holders (LTH) have been taking profits, particularly towards the end of September. 

Analysts note that Bitcoin’s price movement in the coming weeks may be influenced by the decisions of short-term holders.

Despite recent fluctuations, historical data suggests that Bitcoin generally performs well in the fourth quarter. 

Analyst Timothy Peterson emphasised that Bitcoin has had positive Q4 returns, except during bear markets in 2018, 2019, and 2022. 

Peterson predicts a potential 30-60% gain by the end of the quarter, with a 40% chance of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by year-end.

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price was $60,668.77.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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