Former President Donald Trump’s unexpected mention of the crypto-based betting platform Polymarket in a recent speech has ignited widespread attention. Referring to it as the “polypoll or something.”
Trump confidently boasted “We are at 64% by the way,” signaling optimism about his chances in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. His comments come as Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market, becomes increasingly popular, with Trump leading on the platform by a significant margin.
Currently, Trump’s odds of winning the 2024 election stand at a staggering 60% on Polymarket, compared to Vice President Kamala Harris, whose chances are at 40%.
Source: Polymarket
This contrasts with traditional opinion polls, which predict a much tighter race. However, according to a source familiar with the situation, four key accounts placing large bets on Trump’s victory are owned by non-American individuals, as Polymarket does not allow U.S. citizens to bet on their elections. The platform strictly monitors and certifies its large traders, ensuring they are not using VPNs to disguise their locations.
One prominent user, “Fredi9999,” is rumored to hold over $20 million in pro-Trump wagers, heavily influencing the odds in his favor. As Election Day approaches, concerns about manipulation in prediction markets like Polymarket are intensifying, with just three weeks remaining until the final vote. The international nature of these bets raises questions about the potential impact of non-U.S. citizens on the outcome.
