Barclays: Philippine central bank may cut policy rate by 25 basis points in December 2024

Barclays Bank economist Shehryar Janjua said after analyzing October's inflation data that the Philippine central bank may cut its policy rate by 25 basis points in December 2024 and by 75 basis points in 2025. She said that the overall inflation rate for the month rose 2.3% year-on-year, within the central bank's forecast range of 2.0%-2.8%. Janjua expects the Philippine central bank to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each quarter from the first to the third quarter of 2025, and end the rate-cutting cycle when rates reach 5.0%.

She also added that inflation is unlikely to disrupt the central bank's rate-cutting path until the first half of 2025, apart from oil price fluctuations. Janjua said that favorable trends in inflation, slowing economic growth, and interest rate differentials will also support the Philippine central bank's rate cuts.