Crypto analyst EGRAG Crypto recently updated XRP’s 12-hour time frame, analyzing the performance of an ascending triangle pattern formed over the past month.
In his February 22 post , he highlighted that historical data suggests ascending triangles typically break to the upside approximately 70-75% of the time, while downside breakouts occur only 25-30% of the time. Given this probability, he initially anticipated a bullish breakout, targeting a price range of $3.2 to $3.4.
However, contrary to statistical expectations, XRP experienced a breakdown rather than an upward move. In his latest update, EGRAG acknowledged this unexpected shift and reassessed the market structure, emphasizing the importance of probabilities in technical analysis rather than emotional reactions.
#XRP – 12 Hours TF UPDATE:
Nothing has changed still filling in the Ascending Triangle.
Historical data suggests that ascending triangles breaking out is as follows:
1⃣ To the upside approximately 70-75% of the time. 2⃣ To the downside occur around 25-30% of the time.— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) February 22, 2025
Market Structure and Potential Bottom Formation
The chart accompanying EGRAG’s latest analysis illustrates how XRP initially followed the expected trajectory within the ascending triangle. The pattern remained intact until the market defied conventional probabilities, leading to a move lower instead of the anticipated breakout.
Despite this development, EGRAG suggests that the current price action may indicate the formation of a double bottom, a pattern often associated with potential reversals. If this pattern holds, XRP could soon regain strength. However, he also leaves room for one more downward push before a recovery, aligning with the measured move of the descending breakout.
Evaluating Technical Probabilities
EGRAG’s commentary reflects a disciplined approach to market analysis, prioritizing mathematical probabilities over speculation or sentiment-driven predictions. He subtly points out that, over the past month, very few analysts in the XRP community identified the possibility of a downward breakout despite the historical odds favoring an upward move. This observation reinforces his focus on probability-based analysis rather than assumptions based on expectations alone.
His recent analysis does not dismiss the bullish scenario entirely but instead reevaluates the market’s current positioning. If XRP finds strong support at current levels, the possibility of a recovery remains viable. However, if the downward move extends further, traders should remain aware of potential continuation patterns before any confirmed reversal.
EGRAG Crypto’s latest update highlights the unpredictability of market behavior, even when historical data strongly favors a particular outcome. His analysis of the 12-hour ascending triangle demonstrates the importance of flexibility in trading strategies and the need to reassess market conditions as they evolve. Whether XRP resumes an upward trajectory or faces another push lower depends on how it responds to key support levels in the coming sessions.
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