Insight into Arthur Hayes’ Prediction of a Potential $70K Bitcoin Drop

Key Points

• Bitcoin [BTC] retested its range-lows of $91k for the fourth time in 2025, extending losses to 16%.
• Arthur Hayes, Founder of BitMEX, warns BTC could drop to $70K due to unattractive CME Futures ‘yield’.

Bitcoin’s [BTC] recent dip to its range-lows of $91k, the fourth such occurrence in 2025, has extended its losses to 16% from its record high of $109.5K in January.

According to Arthur Hayes, Founder of BitMEX and CIO at crypto fund Maelstrom, the cryptocurrency’s troubles could be far from over.

What’s next for BTC?

Hayes has suggested in a recent X (formerly Twitter) post that BTC could potentially drop to $70K. This is due to what he perceives as an unattractive ‘yield’ from CME Futures, which could lead to large funds unwinding.

Hayes’ post included a chart showing that the current short-term U.S. treasuries were yielding 4.3%. However, the BTC CME basis has seen a decline post-U.S. elections, while the ETH CME trade offered comparatively outsized returns.

Last week, K33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde noted that the CME BTC Futures basis (monthly) had dropped to pre-bull market levels seen in late 2023.

The Futures basis is the difference between the BTC Futures and spot index prices. A high positive number suggests bullish sentiment, while a declining or negative number indicates muted or negative sentiment.

Analysts at Bitfinex, however, have attributed BTC’s woes to macro uncertainty, which has also affected the U.S. equity market.

They observed that the downturn has been exacerbated by macro-driven uncertainty, as well as Bitcoinʼs increasing correlation with traditional markets. They added that the faltering S&P 500 has dampened risk appetite across the board, including for BTC.

Despite the fears and sell-off, Chris Burniske, a partner at crypto VC Placeholder, believes that the pullback is a typical mid-bull run reset seen in 2021.

He stated that in 2021, BTC drew down 56% and that the current reset is not unprecedented.

From a fundamental perspective, BTC’s overheated levels above 2 on the Market Value to Realized Value ratio (MVRV) is similar to the pattern seen at the early 2024 local top.

If history repeats, a cycle top could be observed if the MVRV taps 3. However, losing the $91K-$90K support held for the past three months would change the market structure for BTC.