Options market still betting on end-June $100,000 target as long-short game intensifies

On 21 March, it was reported that the cryptocurrency market went into profit-taking after the Fed's FOMC meeting after a short-lived frenzy. Bitcoin fell from a high of $86,000 to below $84,000, a 24-hour decline of more than 3%, while ethereum lost the psychological $2,000 barrier. Despite the overall market pressure, options traders remain optimistic about the medium term, with the probability of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 by the end of June rising from 20% to nearly 30% in 24 hours.

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and announced a reduction in quantitative tightening (QT) in April, which was interpreted as a signal of easing in disguise and pushed bitcoin above $85,000. BNB bucked the trend with an 8 percent weekly gain, while XRP narrowed its weekly gain to 4.8 percent. The options market was divided, with 60% of ethereum call options showing rising bottoming sentiment, while 34% of bitcoin options trading volume was used for downside protection, intensifying the game between long and short. The market returned to rationality after a short period of revelry, and $80,000 is the key support for bitcoin in the short term, which has become the focus of a new round of short and long games. Optimism in the options market and caution in the spot market have formed a delicate balance, and breaking through the averages may be the key to trend reversal.