BeInCrypto US Morning Briefing: ‘Liberation Day’ Volatility Already Priced In as Bitcoin Price Climbs, Says 21Shares

Welcome to the US Morning Crypto Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.

Grab a coffee to see how Bitcoin is showing signs of strength, as 21Shares suggests the volatility tied to “Liberation Day” may already be priced in. With institutional flows remaining strong and derivatives markets leaning bullish, investors are watching closely to see if BTC can sustain its momentum into the end of the week.

Bitcoin Shows Resilience as Liberation Day Volatility Appears Priced In, According to 21Shares

The market is waiting to see the “Liberation Day” impact on crypto. 21Shares Crypto Research Strategist Matt Mena told BeInCrypto:

“Institutional positioning and recent BTC ETF flows suggest that the volatility associated with the “Liberation Day” event was largely priced into markets over the weekend. Bitcoin experienced a sharp correction from $87K, briefly breaking below the critical $84K–$85K support range and testing the significant $81K level. However, despite broader market pressures—with the SP 500 struggling to maintain levels above $5,600—Bitcoin has demonstrated notable resilience, rebounding approximately 3% in the past 24 hours and holding firmly above the key $85K support level.”

Mena also explains that this resilience aligns with BTC ETFs resilience, which saw $750 million in inflows two weeks ago:

“This resilience aligns closely with recent institutional activity in BTC ETFs. Last week saw nearly $200 million in inflows, following nearly $750 million the previous week. These sustained inflows reflect proactive institutional positioning and confidence that potential volatility from Liberation Day has been anticipated and accounted for. Overall, the consistent institutional demand underscores Bitcoin’s maturation as an asset class, reinforcing its capability to decouple from traditional market turbulence.”

Mena also points out that stable volatility and high CME futures interest signal growing confidence in Bitcoin’s upside potential:

“Additionally, derivatives market indicators are painting an increasingly favorable picture for price upside. Open interest on CME Bitcoin futures remains elevated, while implied volatility has stayed relatively stable—suggesting that market participants are positioning for upside rather than bracing for downside volatility. This dynamic reflects growing confidence that any disruptions tied to Liberation Day have been digested, leaving the door open for continued bullish momentum if Bitcoin holds key support levels.”

Lastly, he defends that BTC ETF options show a strong call skew, signaling bullish expectations for a year-end rally:

“Further supporting this bullish outlook, BTC ETF options data shows a notable skew toward calls: there are roughly three times as many call options as put options above current price levels expiring at the end of this week. This imbalance signals that market participants expect Bitcoin to continue trending higher, with many positioning for a strong close to the week and further gains into year-end.”

Bitwise Europe analysts also defend that “Liberation Day” is already price in: “Bitcoin and cryptoassets have already priced in significant US recession fears, but some downside risk remains if a recession materializes. However, improving macro factors, declining exchange balances, and strong accumulation trends suggest continued long-term support for Bitcoin’s bullish trajectory. Improving macro conditions should also improve on-chain activity with a lag” they said in a market report on Tuesday.

Despite that, experts warn of potential market volatility on “Liberation Day”, as investors are still unsure about its impacts on the crypto market. Bitcoin is trading at 85,000, up by 1.70% in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin Price Data. Source: BeInCrypto.

Derivatives Signals Hint at Possible Stabilization or Bear Trap

Derivatives trader Gordon Grant suggests the market may be entering a short-term stabilization phase as volatility rises and options positioning flattens post–Liberation Day. Speaking to BeInCrypto, he said:

“In derivatives, the derisking pre liberation day has happened and options positioning is materially flatter at this point.”

Grant also touched on market sentiment in relation to spot prices and volatility. He pointed out that when the spot market (the current price of the asset) is declining while volatility is rising, it sometimes signals a short-term stabilization phase.

He explained that this pattern might reflect a “capitulative demand for vol,” meaning that after a steep decline, market participants may have already sold off their positions, which can lead to a stabilization in prices.

Grant also explained that the market conditions—what he described as the “sharp flip in term structure and blowout of put skews across the curve”—could signal a market correction or even a bear trap if the recent push toward BTC’s $80,000 level or the decline in ETH prices fails to hold.

Chart of the Day

Chances of a US recession in 2025. Source: Polymarket.

The chances of a US recession in 2025 jumped from 33% on March 28 to 42% today.

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