Why are Long-Term Investors Skeptical Despite Bitcoin Surpassing $103K?

Key Points

• Bitcoin’s long-term holder NUPL remained at 0.69 despite its price increase from $85K to $102K.
• Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow Ratio rose by 116.67% post-halving, deepening its scarcity narrative.

Despite a significant rise in the price of Bitcoin (BTC), the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) of long-term holders remained static at 0.69.

This indicates that despite the price surge, the sentiment among long-term investors has not changed significantly.

Whale Activity and Investor Sentiment

In the past 72 hours, whales have sold over 30,000 BTC, suggesting a lack of confidence in the short-term upside. This aggressive trimming of positions by large holders could potentially weaken short-term momentum despite Bitcoin’s higher valuation.

Over 94.88% of Bitcoin addresses are currently in profit, with only 0.88% out of the money. While this indicates strong profitability, it also suggests a distribution risk. If holders rush to lock in profits, the supply on the market could increase.

Derivatives Activity and Scarcity Narrative

Despite higher activity in Bitcoin derivatives markets, there is a lower conviction among traders. This suggests that current momentum lacks the deep leverage commitment seen during major rallies.

On a broader scale, Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow Ratio has jumped by 116.67% to 43.5K, highlighting the deepening impact of the halving-induced supply shock. This could potentially amplify price action if demand returns with strength.

However, without new inflows, this bullish structure remains underutilized. It is crucial for investors to track this metric as it reflects Bitcoin’s intrinsic long-term value.

In conclusion, while Bitcoin shows strength in price, there is a weakness in conviction among long-term holders and whales. The sustainability of the rally depends on renewed demand absorbing selling pressure and validating current price levels.