The US non-farm data will be released tonight, and the US stock market may fluctuate significantly due to it
a simulated exercise by JPMorgan's trading department showed that if the employment data released on Thursday is similar to the weak trend in the earlier ADP report, the US stock market is likely to experience a significant sell-off. JPMorgan has set market reactions for different scenarios: addition of 85,000-105,000 jobs: the S&P 500 index may fall by 0.25%-1.5%; below 85,000 jobs: the S&P 500 index may plummet by 2%-3%; the report warned: "In the worst case scenario, the market will face stagflation (weak economic growth accompanied by high inflation) risks, at which point both fiscal and monetary policies may be powerless." The report specifically pointed out: "As long as non-farm payrolls are above 100,000, the stock market will still receive support." Of course, employment data has also shown better-than-expected performance in the past, and this may happen again. JPMorgan predicts: addition of 125,000-145,000 jobs: the S&P 500 index may rise by 0.75%-1.25%; exceeding 145,000 jobs: the S&P 500 index may see an increase of 1%-1.5%.
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