21Shares says June payroll surprise sets soft-landing stage that could catalyze Bitcoin beyond $200k

June US employment data exceeded forecasts and sets a macro backdrop that could send Bitcoin (BTC) past $200,000, according to a research note from Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at 21Shares.

The Labor Department reported that non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, surpassing the consensus estimate of 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%. Additionally, it came below the estimated 4.3%.

Mena writes that the numbers show “labor market strength without overheating,” a mix that supports the Federal Reserve’s slow-landing narrative. 

Futures tied to the federal funds rate now fully price a 25-basis-point cut at the September policy meeting, and the CME FedWatch Tool assigns roughly a 75% chance to that outcome.

With headline inflation tracking 2.4%, Mena argues that the Fed “has room to act,” primarily as political pressure builds. The pressure comes mainly from President Donald Trump’s letter urging a return to a 1% terminal rate.

Liquidity channels and market response

Rate-cut expectations are filtering into risk assets. Mena notes that S&P 500 futures are “flirting with all-time highs” near 6,300, while Bitcoin trades between $108,000 and $110,000 on July 3 and “waits for a catalyst.” 

As of press time, BTC is priced at $109,518.14, representing a nearly 1% increase in the past 24 hours.

Mena noted that Bitcoin’s share of total crypto market value has slipped to 62%, down 3% in recent days. He views this as an early sign of capital rotating into altcoins. 

He links the shift to greater liquidity prospects with congressional progress on the Market Structure Bill and the GENIUS Act, legislation he says could help dampen regulatory uncertainty and widen institutional participation.

Path to $200,000

Mena connected the data chain with a broader context that can propel Bitcoin towards the $200,000 threshold. He mentioned that steady but non-inflationary job growth paves the way for Fed easing, lower policy rates, and liquidity release. 

Historically, fresh capital is first allocated to Bitcoin and then to altcoins. In that sequence, he writes, “the runway is forming” for a push through the previous cycle’s high. 

The strategist sees the $200,000 mark as “a decisive breakout level” rather than a cycle peak, adding that altcoins could outperform once Bitcoin establishes a new range.

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