Analyst: Bitcoin indicators suggest the current phase is more likely a bull market pause rather than the end of the cycle

ChainCatcher News, according to market sources, on August 27, CryptoQuant analyst Axel posted on social media that the current annualized adjusted MVRV ratio of bitcoin has reached the 1 range—this means that the short-term average (30 days) is basically equal to the annual average (365 days).

The annualized basis remains positive, and its curve is flat, resulting from the offsetting of two forces: after a strong rally, the 30-day indicator cools in sync with volatility and profit-taking speed, while the heavy 365-day average still contains the growth momentum of the past few months. As a result, the numerator and denominator move almost in sync, the difference between the two narrows, and the basis line neither declines nor accelerates upward—the market is substantially digesting the previous gains.

This situation is more inclined to be a pause within a bull market structure rather than the end of a cycle. As long as the annualized basis does not reverse downward, the current state should be regarded as a balanced situation rather than a trend breakdown: the network is reallocating risk from impatient holders to more patient ones, and there are no signs of panic selling.

The market's reaction to the current position in the coming weeks will be crucial. At this stage, what the market needs more is time rather than a reversal of direction.