Exploiting Ethereum's Range Trade: Lessons from the Radiant Capital Hacker’s Stolen-Funds Strategy

The 2024 Radiant Capital exploit, in which a hacker turned $53 million in stolen funds into over $103 million by mid-August 2025, offers a masterclass in swing trading within a defined price range. By leveraging Ethereum’s consolidation between $4,000 and $5,000, the attacker executed a disciplined strategy of selling high and buying low, amplifying gains through precise timing. This case study reveals actionable insights for investors navigating Ethereum’s current market dynamics.

The Hacker’s Playbook: A Case for Range Trading

The hacker’s approach centered on capitalizing on Ethereum’s volatility within a narrow range. Between January and August 2025, they sold 9,631 ETH at an average price of $4,562, then repurchased 2,109.5 ETH at $4,096, effectively locking in profits while minimizing exposure to downside risk [1]. This strategy mirrors classic swing trading principles: selling at resistance levels and reaccumulating at support. The attacker’s success underscores the importance of identifying key price thresholds and maintaining liquidity to exploit short-term fluctuations.

Ethereum’s consolidation phase, marked by repeated tests of the $4,000–$5,000 range, created ideal conditions for such tactics. Technical analysis reveals that the asset has spent months oscillating within this band, with institutional inflows and a bullish sentiment index reinforcing its structural strength [2]. For swing traders, this suggests a market in equilibrium, where disciplined entries and exits can generate outsized returns.

Technical Indicators and On-Chain Signals

Ethereum’s on-chain data further validates the viability of range trading. Exchange balances—the amount of ETH held on centralized platforms—have fallen to a nine-year low, signaling strong retail and institutional accumulation [2]. This trend suggests a market where sellers are scarce, and buyers are willing to pay a premium to secure positions.

Technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also point to a potential breakout. Ethereum’s RSI has frequently oscillated between overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) levels, reflecting the tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces [2]. A sustained close above $4,500 could trigger a parabolic move, while a breakdown below $4,200 might force a retest of the $4,000 support level [5].

Strategic Entry and Exit Points

For investors, the hacker’s strategy highlights the importance of liquidity management. Selling at resistance levels (e.g., $4,500–$4,600) and reaccumulating at support (e.g., $4,100–$4,200) can generate compounding returns. However, this requires strict risk management. The hacker’s decision to hold a significant portion of their assets in ETH during the price rally—from $4,000 to over $5,000—demonstrates the value of balancing short-term gains with long-term exposure [1].

A critical lesson lies in the attacker’s use of stop-loss orders and trailing stops. By securing profits during upward swings and minimizing losses during dips, they mitigated the risks of a volatile market. This approach is particularly relevant for swing traders, who must avoid overexposure during unpredictable corrections.

Historically, a strategy of buying Ethereum at support levels and selling at resistance levels from 2022 to 2025 yielded a total return of 31.05% with an annualized return of 13.03%, though it came with a maximum drawdown of 56.61% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.33. These results underscore the potential rewards of disciplined range trading but also highlight the need for robust risk controls to navigate sharp volatility.

The Road Ahead: Breakout or Consolidation?

Ethereum’s next move hinges on its ability to break out of the $4,000–$5,000 range. Analysts argue that a sustained close above $4,500 could trigger a rally toward $5,000, fueled by renewed institutional interest and a bullish sentiment index [2]. Conversely, a breakdown below $4,200 might force a consolidation phase around $4,100–$4,200 before a new upward leg [5].

The hacker’s success underscores a broader truth: in a range-bound market, patience and precision outweigh speculation. By aligning trades with technical levels and on-chain signals, investors can replicate the attacker’s gains while adhering to ethical and legal frameworks.

Conclusion

The Radiant Capital hacker’s stolen-funds strategy is a testament to the power of swing trading in a defined range. By exploiting Ethereum’s consolidation phase, they turned a $53 million theft into a $103 million portfolio, showcasing the rewards of disciplined market timing. For investors, the lesson is clear: in a market where volatility is the norm, strategic entries and exits—backed by technical analysis and on-chain data—can unlock substantial returns. As Ethereum inches toward a potential breakout, the stage is set for those who can navigate the range with the same acumen as the hacker.

**Source:[1] Radiant Capital hacker doubles $53M stash via ETH trading, [2] Ethereum (ETH) Price: Analysts Target $5000 As Exchange Holdings Drop to 9-year Low [3] Radiant Capital hacker turns $53M theft into $95 million ..., [4] Radiant Capital Hacker Prints 93% Profit on Stolen Ethereum, [5] Ethereum (ETH) Uptrend Intact: Sideways Consolidation and Possible $4.1K–$4.2K Dip Before New ATH, Says @cas_abbe