Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin’s Cycle Hinges on September as Bulls Hold Their Breath

Bitcoin is approaching a critical juncture in its cyclical trajectory, with analysts suggesting that the September 2025 period may mark the cryptocurrency’s cyclical low. This perspective is grounded in historical drawdown patterns and seasonality trends, which point toward a potential floor in the $93,000–$95,000 range. On-chain data supports this view, highlighting that the Short-Term Holder Realised Price currently sits at $108,900, which has become a key pivot point. Sustained trading below this level could lead to further downside pressure, although market indicators suggest that the current phase may be nearing its end [1].

The broader altcoin market has struggled to keep pace with Bitcoin’s volatility. Ethereum , for instance, has retreated by about 14% from recent highs, while XRP , ADA , and DOGE have all recorded double-digit losses. This broad-based risk-off sentiment is indicative of a market in consolidation, with capital rotating rather than expanding. Mid-cap tokens such as CRO and PUMP have seen relative outperformance, driven by narrative-driven rallies rather than broader inflows. Institutional demand, however, remains a stabilizing force, particularly in the case of Ethereum, where treasuries and corporate buyers continue to add to their holdings [1].

The stagnation of the altcoin market cap reflects a broader shift in investor behavior. With ETF inflows historically muted and speculative activity waning, the market is entering a phase of consolidation before the potential resumption of a bull run in the fourth quarter. This expectation is grounded in structural drivers such as regulatory clarity and corporate adoption, which have helped to reduce market fragmentation and increase liquidity. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s reaffirmation of the Foreign Board of Trade framework, for instance, has opened the door for offshore exchanges to re-enter the U.S. market under established rules, a move expected to enhance market depth [1].

Macroeconomic developments also play a key role in shaping the near-term outlook. U.S. economic data for August revealed a mixed picture ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. Consumer spending rose by 0.5%, marking the strongest gain in four months, while core PCE inflation remained elevated at 2.9% year over year. Despite this, job creation has slowed to an average of 35,000 per month, and updated benchmarks suggest that fewer new jobs are now required to maintain labor market stability. This recalibration has lowered the bar for policy easing, shifting expectations toward a September rate cut, even as inflation remains above target. Meanwhile, second-quarter GDP was revised upward to 3.3%, driven by strong investment in intellectual property and equipment, though regional surveys like the Chicago Business Barometer have signaled weakening business activity amid tariffs and declining confidence [1].

Corporate and institutional adoption of digital assets continues to gain momentum, contributing to a more stable and mature crypto market. BitMine Immersion Technologies, for instance, has reinforced its status as the world’s largest Ethereum treasury company, holding $8.82 billion in crypto and cash while pursuing an ambitious plan to acquire 5% of Ethereum’s total supply. El Salvador, too, has made headlines with its Bitcoin strategy, having dispersed its $682 million reserve across multiple wallets to reduce security risks and enhance transparency through a public dashboard [1].

As the market prepares for what could be a pivotal September, the convergence of macroeconomic, regulatory, and corporate factors is shaping the next phase of Bitcoin’s cycle. While volatility remains a defining characteristic of the crypto market, the presence of institutional buyers and policy shifts are contributing to a more structured and predictable environment. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the cyclical low point will hold, setting the stage for a potential Q4 rebound driven by structural fundamentals [1].