DeepThink from a certain exchange: Bitcoin regains favor as a safe haven, institutional bullish sentiment rises while retail participation weakens

According to ChainCatcher, DeepThink column author and exchange Research analyst Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) pointed out that the international market has recently shown a risk-averse atmosphere: the US Dollar Index has strengthened, the yield on the US 30-year Treasury bond continues to rise, gold prices have broken through historical highs, and long-term bond yields in Europe and Japan have generally increased, while US stocks have slightly pulled back.

The supply pressure of European and American bonds and political uncertainty in Japan have triggered a global sell-off of long-term bonds; as a result, investors have turned to assets such as gold and bitcoin, with gold prices rising above $3,500 per ounce. On-chain data shows a divergence in bitcoin network activity: active addresses have dropped by 2.2% to 692,000, but on-chain transaction volume has increased by 8% to $10.3 billions, indicating a decline in retail participation and a higher proportion of large traders.

The bitcoin futures/spot ratio has dropped to its lowest level since October 2022, spot trading volume is three times that of altcoins, and the taker buy/sell ratio is as high as 1.21, indicating that demand from large spot buyers remains strong. In derivatives, BTC's long-term realized volatility has slipped to near its 2023 low, but long-dated option implied volatility is higher than actual volatility, reflecting market expectations of increased volatility before the end of the year; ETH realized volatility continues to rise, with capital once again buying call options, the most popular being the $4,500 and $4,900 calls expiring on August 29. For BTC, the most actively traded are the $122,000 call options expiring on August 29 and the $116,000 put options expiring on August 22.

For ETH options, the short-term and 30-day implied volatility skew has turned from negative to positive, with open interest concentrated in the $4,900‑5,200 call and $3,900‑4,200 put ranges. Overall, the macro environment has stimulated demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and bitcoin. On-chain and options data show strong spot buying of bitcoin and a clear bullish sentiment among institutions, but retail enthusiasm is declining and the market remains in a consolidation phase.