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Analyst: Bitcoin is no longer dependent on the halving cycle; those predicting a price peak in Q4 may be misunderstanding the probabilities.

Analyst: Bitcoin is no longer dependent on the halving cycle; those predicting a price peak in Q4 may be misunderstanding the probabilities.

ChaincatcherChaincatcher2025/09/06 03:28
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ChainCatcher News, according to Cointelegraph, crypto analyst PlanC posted on X stating that anyone who believes bitcoin will peak in the fourth quarter of this year does not understand statistics or probability. From a statistical and probabilistic perspective, this is equivalent to flipping a coin and getting tails three times in a row, then betting all your money that the fourth flip will also be tails. In reality, relying on the previous three halving cycles does not provide enough statistically significant data.

Now, with the rise of bitcoin funds and a large inflow of capital into US spot bitcoin ETFs, the halving cycle is no longer relevant to bitcoin. Aside from psychological and self-fulfilling prophecies, there is no fundamental reason to explain why bitcoin would peak in the fourth quarter of 2025.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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