Bitcoin's Stealthy Accumulation Period: Ushering in a New Age of Patient Investors

The Sell-Side Risk Ratio for Bitcoin, an important on-chain metric that gauges how likely long-term investors are to sell their BTC, has declined to some of its lowest points in history, catching the attention of market observers. The ratio recently dipped under 0.1%, a threshold that, as on-chain expert Ali Martinez notes, "frequently marks local lows, periods of accumulation, and diminished selling pressure." This decline continues a trend seen in November 2023 and September 2024, when similarly low levels preceded significant price surges. The present decrease in sell-side risk indicates that long-term

holders face little motivation to offload their coins, which could imply that the market is currently consolidating or accumulating.

Those who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days, known as short-term holders, are also contributing to the current market steadiness. The short-term holder (STH) sell-side risk ratio has dropped to 0.05%, marking its lowest point since October 2010, when Bitcoin traded at just $0.06. Such levels usually point to a calmer market with less price turbulence, potentially setting up conditions for more pronounced price movements ahead. Historically, these subdued readings have often come before major shifts in the market, whether upward or downward, since short-term investors tend to influence prices through quick trades.

When it comes to price action, Bitcoin has stayed within a tight range around $115,500, recording a 3% increase over the week and $44.3 billion in daily trading volume. Market watchers like Daan Crypto Trades describe the market as experiencing a “gradual upward move” with subdued retail participation and a neutral outlook. While the last period of intense activity happened after the 2024 election, pushing both Bitcoin and alternative coins higher, the current environment points to a healthier phase of consolidation. Daan anticipates another period of market overheating by late 2025, though he allows for the possibility that this cycle could stretch into 2026.

Several important price points are attracting attention as well. CryptoWZRD has identified $117,000 as a significant resistance level that could spark a new rally, especially if optimism about Federal Reserve rate cuts continues. Should Bitcoin climb and hold above this mark, it might trigger a wave of short position liquidations. Kyle Chassé has noted that $3 billion worth of short trades could be wiped out if Bitcoin surpasses $117,000, potentially intensifying the upward momentum.

Broader economic factors are also favoring Bitcoin’s rise. The U.S. dollar has declined by nearly 11% in the first half of 2025, marking its weakest start to a year since 1973. This larger macroeconomic backdrop, along with shifts in global monetary policy, has led more investors to view Bitcoin as a form of digital gold. This perception is strengthened by the year’s largest round of short liquidations, which erased $1.01 billion in short positions—$590 million of which came from Bitcoin futures. The resulting forced buying has further fueled the bullish trend.

Even with these optimistic signals, experts warn that the market might be nearing a saturation point. Technical metrics like the RSI show overbought conditions, while the MACD is picking up speed, hinting at growing momentum that could eventually need a cooling-off period. On-chain figures also reveal a buildup of buy and sell orders close to $117,000, indicating potential resistance. How Bitcoin handles these levels in the near future will be crucial in shaping its next price direction.