Bitcoin at a Turning Point: Is This the End of the Bull Run or the Beginning of a New Era?

The sustained upward momentum of Bitcoin remains at the center of attention for market observers, though opinions differ regarding its duration and direction. CryptoQuant’s Axel Adler points out that, despite the bull market persisting, it appears to be entering its concluding stage. Adler emphasizes that the gap between

futures and spot prices—a crucial gauge of overall sentiment—signals that the bull market is maturing. He predicts there is a 70% probability that prices will either hold steady or see modest gains over the upcoming two weeks.

On the other hand, PlanB, the anonymous architect behind the Bitcoin stock-to-flow model, offers a contrasting perspective. PlanB notes that, historically, Bitcoin’s price tends to quadruple after surpassing its 200-week moving average—a technical benchmark frequently referenced by crypto traders. This framework has consistently identified major price rallies after the 200-week average was breached in previous cycles, such as those in 2017 and 2021.

Market analysts are also evaluating Bitcoin’s performance by considering both the futures premium and the Sell-Side Risk Ratio. The Sell-Side Risk Ratio, which measures prevailing selling pressure in the market, has dropped sharply from 0.71% in March to just 0.16%, pointing to a stronger bullish mood. This reduction implies that the market could still have potential for further gains and hints at the possible beginning of a new bullish period.

Another noteworthy indicator is the recent surge in the Bitcoin futures premium, which climbed to its highest level in five weeks. On July 22, the premium—which captures the difference between futures and spot prices—rose to 13%, reflecting growing confidence among traders. This positive sentiment is largely fueled by hopes for more favorable regulations, especially in the United States, as well as expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon lower interest rates.

Investors are also keeping a close eye on the effects of global political and economic uncertainties, including the prospect of a Trump-Vance presidency, which is generally viewed as supportive of the crypto sector. Nevertheless, the roles of the Federal Reserve and the SEC introduce additional complexity to forecasting market moves. Recent policy shifts by China’s central bank, such as interest rate reductions, further complicate projections for economic stimulus in one of the world’s largest economies.

Overall, even though there is widespread agreement that the Bitcoin bull market is continuing, debates persist regarding the timing and scale of its movements. Analysts are vigilantly tracking factors like futures premiums, the Sell-Side Risk Ratio, and historical trends to better understand the market’s possible trajectory. With these variables in flux, investors are urged to remain prudent and thoroughly research before making investment choices.