Kalshi’s Surge to 60% Market Share: A New Era in Prediction Markets

• Kalshi’s market share surged from 5% to 60% in 2025, showing the power of regulated markets.
• Weekly trading volumes surpassed $500 million during the NFL season, rivaling crypto spikes.
• Kalshi hit $1.39 billion in monthly volume, outpacing Polymarket’s $820 million growth.

Kalshi’s market share has skyrocketed from 5% to 60% in 2025. The platform’s rapid growth highlights the scalability of regulated prediction markets. This shift reflects the increasing mainstream demand for legal, secure platforms. 

The increase in Kalshi activity has been spurred by big events, notably the NFL season. Weekly volumes exceeding $500 million are on par with major crypto trading events. Kalshi has shown how betting based on sports could generate real liquidity for these prediction markets. This makes Kalshi an American-friendly competitor to Polymarket, the decentralized predictions market platform.

Kalshi Surpasses $1.39 Billion in Monthly Volume, Outpacing Polymarket

Kalshi’s monthly trading volume for the month reached $1.39 billion, higher than Polymarket’s $820 million. The platform’s regulated nature distinguishes it from Polymarket, which continues to face legal struggles in the U.S. This underscores the fact that regulation is a major reason why Kalshi could scale so quickly.

Kalshi’s stunning ascent is a blueprint for how regulated markets could bring mainstream people on board. The platform has become increasingly popular as more people play the ‘prediction’ markets. Kalshi topped over $1 billion in monthly volume last year during the U.S. elections. Today’s surge in trading volume indicates that Kalshi has the momentum to keep this party going.

Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi, expressed his excitement over the platform’s performance. He highlighted that Kalshi’s growth is a result of increased user engagement with the platform. As more users bet on a variety of outcomes, from sports results to financial events, Kalshi’s user base continues to grow. This suggests that event-based prediction markets are moving into the mainstream.

Kalshi’s growth has been likened to the ascent of leading crypto exchanges like Coinbase. Although Polymarket remains non-custodial, Kalshi has benefited from being regulated. 

Related: Polymarket and Kalshi Aim Billions After Regulatory Approval

Kalshi’s Regulatory Clarity and Blockchain Integration Fuel Growth

Experts highlighted that regulatory clarity has been integral to Kalshi’s success. Being a U.S.-compliant platform, Kalshi could provide security and reliability for its users. 

Kalshi launched the Kalshi ecosystem, a hub supporting off-chain and on-chain innovation, with dedicated grants in partnership with Solana and Base. This approach of combining regulation with blockchain integration could make it a frontrunner in prediction markets. This hybrid model may set a new benchmark for other platforms to follow.

Kalshi is part of a more general shift toward event-based prediction markets. If prediction markets start to become more in demand, more investment may pour into companies like Kalshi and Polymarket. 

Polymarket is exploring the possibility of raising more capital, with a valuation ranging from $9 to $10 billion. On the other hand, Kalshi is nearing a funding round that could bring its valuation to $5 billion. As both platforms attract significant investment, they are expanding their user bases and solidifying their positions in the market.

Kalshi’s rapid ascent is evidence that regulated platforms are able to grow relatively fast once demand has struck. If the platform continues to become successful and gain traction, it could perhaps foreshadow a larger movement towards properly regulated event trading in the U.S. 

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