Société Générale: After the Fed decision, market focus returns to inflation data

Jinse Finance reported that Société Générale stated the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points was in line with general expectations and was not disappointing. Although our unconventional forecast of a 50 basis point rate cut did not materialize, as we mentioned last week, if the September meeting decides on a 25 basis point cut, it is very likely that there will be additional 25 basis point cuts in both October and December, which is indeed confirmed by the median in the dot plot. We also note that the Federal Reserve expects the interest rate level to reach 3.38% by the end of 2026, which is consistent with our forecast but nearly 50 basis points higher than current market pricing. Next week, the market's focus will shift entirely to personal income and expenditure data and the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator—the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE). (Golden Ten Data)