Trump's $5 Million Visa Proposal: A Fix for Debt or a Potential Economic Disaster?

The U.S. national debt situation has reached a pivotal point, as billionaire Ray Dalio has issued warnings about a looming "economic heart attack" due to the country’s fiscal direction, which he says resembles a perilous debt spiral. Dalio, who established Bridgewater Associates, has repeatedly spoken out about the $37.5 trillion federal debt and the ever-widening disparity between government expenditures and income—with 2025 spending projected at $7 trillion while tax revenues are only expected to be $5 trillion. The debt-to-GDP ratio, a vital indicator of financial stability, has jumped to 123%, and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) foresees deficits of $1.9 trillion in 2025 and total expenditures reaching $10.7 trillion by 2035. Dalio pointed out that interest payments on the debt now account for 3.9% of GDP, reducing funds available for other essential needs and causing a "mismatch between supply and demand" in the Treasury market.

The increasing dependence on borrowing new funds to pay off old obligations has raised alarms about the stability of market confidence. Dalio has observed that international investors are already showing hesitation, as evidenced by lower demand for U.S. Treasury bonds in April 2025. This pattern reflects larger global trends: the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cautions that both the U.S. and China are major drivers of the worldwide surge in debt, with their combined non-financial sector debt-to-GDP ratio closing in on 270%. Dalio compared the current outlook to a heart attack scenario, warning that the U.S. could experience "financial distress" unless policymakers intervene soon. He estimated there is a 50% chance of such a crisis if the nation stays on its present fiscal course.

In response to these warnings, the Trump administration has rolled out some unorthodox solutions to address the debt. The "Gold Card"

program, introduced in September 2025, obliges affluent immigrants to invest $5 million in exchange for fast-tracked permanent residency and a route to citizenship. Taking the place of the former EB-5 visa, this initiative is designed to raise $100 billion for the federal Treasury. President Trump described the policy as a move to tackle the $36.2 trillion debt, suggesting that selling 10 million Gold Cards could bring in $50 trillion, with $15 trillion specifically set aside to lower the deficit. Still, experts have raised doubts about its practicality; only about 5.6 million people worldwide possess a net worth above $5 million. Critics also point to legal and bureaucratic obstacles that could limit the program’s impact, and argue that it puts financial means ahead of fairness in immigration policy.

Dalio’s perspective highlights the necessity for budgetary restraint reminiscent of the 1990s, when bipartisan cooperation on spending reductions and tax changes helped stabilize the nation’s finances. He calls for a 4% realignment of taxes and spending to shrink the deficit to 3% of GDP—a level last achieved under President Clinton. However, ongoing political division and the lack of reforms to the debt ceiling have stalled progress. According to CBO estimates, if no substantial reforms are made, public debt will surpass 140% of GDP by 2030. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s ongoing use of quantitative easing—essentially increasing the money supply to manage debt—could weaken the dollar’s value, a risk Dalio has frequently stressed.

The wider fiscal policy agenda includes heavy tariffs and corporate tax reductions, yet these policies have come under scrutiny. The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which is projected to add $3.4 trillion to the deficit over ten years, illustrates the conflict between immediate economic stimulus and the need for fiscal sustainability. Dalio warns that unless foundational reforms are enacted, the U.S. could enter a "debt death spiral," marked by escalating interest rates and falling investor trust, potentially triggering a financial system breakdown. The IMF shares this concern, urging the U.S. to curb its high deficits and recommending that China shift from investment-led expansion to a consumption-driven economy.

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