Hayes Believes TGA Replenishment Will Ignite Crypto Surge in Face of Doubts

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that the cryptocurrency market is set to move into a sustained bullish phase once the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) is replenished to $850 billion Arthur Hayes, *Crypto ready for 'up only' mode once US TGA hits $850B target* [ 1 ]. Serving as the main account for the U.S. Treasury with the Federal Reserve, the TGA plays a critical role in managing liquidity. According to Hayes, as the TGA approaches its target, the liquidity drain from Treasury debt sales—which are intended to reduce the money supply—will reverse, channeling funds back into the markets Christina Comben, *With the Treasury General Account refill almost done, ‘up only can resume’* [ 2 ]. He suggests that this influx will create a supportive environment for cryptocurrencies, which tend to benefit from accommodating monetary conditions.

The TGA replenishment began in 2025, and has already absorbed liquidity from the markets through the issuance of Treasury bills and bonds Christina Comben, *With the Treasury General Account refill almost done, ‘up only can resume’* [ 2 ]. As funds pile up in the account, they are effectively taken out of circulation, reducing available liquidity and potentially pressuring asset prices. Hayes pointed out that the TGA currently holds $807 billion, with the $850 billion milestone expected soon Arthur Hayes, *Crypto ready for 'up only' mode once US TGA hits $850B target* [ 1 ]. Once this goal is reached, the previously absorbed liquidity could re-enter the private sector, including crypto, possibly sparking a rally. However, not everyone shares this outlook. André Dragosch, who leads research at Bitwise in Europe, dismissed the correlation between net liquidity and crypto performance, describing it as irrelevant Arthur Hayes, *Crypto ready for 'up only' mode once US TGA hits $850B target* [ 1 ].

The Federal Reserve’s latest policy adjustments add more complexity to the situation. On September 17, 2025, the Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, its first cut since December 2024 *Fed’s Sept. 17 Rate Decision: How a 0.25% Cut Could Reshape* [ 6 ]. This action, together with expectations of further reductions, has fueled

in the cryptocurrency sector. saw a brief drop following the news, a typical "sell the news" response *Fed’s Sept. 17 Rate Decision: How a 0.25% Cut Could Reshape* [ 6 ], but the overall trend of looser monetary policy could be advantageous for riskier assets. Hayes pointed out that the Fed’s current rate-cutting cycle, combined with vast sums currently parked in money market funds, could set the stage for a "powerful surge" in crypto once liquidity returns Christina Comben, *With the Treasury General Account refill almost done, ‘up only can resume’* [ 2 ].

Investors are paying close attention to how TGA developments and the Fed’s policies interact. The

indicated that 91.9% of market participants expect a 50-basis-point cut at the next FOMC meeting in October Arthur Hayes, *Crypto ready for 'up only' mode once US TGA hits $850B target* [ 1 ]. This dovish expectation supports Hayes’ view that lower rates make non-yielding assets like Bitcoin more attractive. Still, there are risks. Hayes cautioned that if the TGA refill is mishandled, Bitcoin could temporarily fall to $90,000–$95,000 *Bitcoin could retest $90K as Trump's Big Beautiful Bill sets stage* [ 3 ], especially if investors see the liquidity boost as short-lived rather than a longer-term trend.

This discussion goes beyond just liquidity. Hayes also highlighted the potential influence of regulated bank-issued stablecoins, which he said could represent a new way to inject funds into the system Arthur Hayes, *Arthur Hayes Warns of Bitcoin Dip Amid Fed and TGA Moves* [ 4 ]. Unlike current stablecoins such as

or , these new tokens could allow deposits into short-term Treasuries without capital charges, essentially serving as a new form of quantitative easing Arthur Hayes, *Arthur Hayes Warns of Bitcoin Dip Amid Fed and TGA Moves* [ 4 ]. If implemented, this could further expand liquidity within crypto markets.

Although optimism is largely built on liquidity and softer monetary policy, some warn against putting too much faith in macroeconomic trends. Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff claims the cryptocurrency is peaking relative to gold and that ongoing stagflation could diminish its long-term prospects. Additionally, alternative coins remain susceptible to greater volatility, with some observers predicting sharper pullbacks than Bitcoin during times of economic uncertainty.

The cryptocurrency market’s future will depend on several factors: the outcome of the TGA refill, the pace of further Fed rate reductions, and regulatory decisions concerning stablecoins. For Hayes’ "up only" scenario to play out, a smooth transition from draining to injecting liquidity is essential, with minimal disruption. If these conditions are met, Bitcoin could aim for new record highs, particularly if institutional demand for spot ETFs keeps growing.