Bitcoin Faces a Quantum Challenge: Should It Hard Fork to Survive or Stay True to Its Core Values?

Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko has delivered a strong caution that

has a 50% chance of being threatened by a quantum computing breakthrough in the next five years, which could endanger the cryptographic security at the core of the network Solana’s Yakovenko Says Bitcoin Must Upgrade to Survive Quantum Threat [ 1 ]. Speaking at the All-In Summit 2025, Yakovenko highlighted the existential danger posed by quantum computers capable of running algorithms such as Shor’s, which can potentially break the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECC) that secures Bitcoin wallets Solana’s Yakovenko Says Bitcoin Must Upgrade to Survive Quantum Threat [ 1 ]. If realized, this would allow malicious actors to create fake transactions and steal assets, threatening the network’s integrity. Yakovenko stated that Bitcoin needs to implement quantum-resistant cryptographic signatures to counter this threat, but this would necessitate a divisive hard fork—an upgrade that is technically demanding and politically sensitive, requiring broad consensus throughout the decentralized network Solana’s Yakovenko Says Bitcoin Must Upgrade to Survive Quantum Threat [ 1 ].

The seriousness of this risk is driven by the rapid progress in quantum technology. Yakovenko pointed out that fields like artificial intelligence are speeding up the transformation of laboratory innovations into practical deployment Solana’s Yakovenko Says Bitcoin Must Upgrade to Survive Quantum Threat [ 1 ]. Although current quantum machines lack sufficient qubits to break ECC, experts predict that computers with millions of qubits could achieve this as soon as the late 2020s or early 2030s. This projection is consistent with estimates from researchers such as Gavin Brennen, who has observed that the quantum resources needed to break ECC have decreased considerably since 2017. Yakovenko’s assessment of a 50/50 chance reflects the increasing overlap between AI and quantum computing, which is accelerating development faster than previously expected.

Bitcoin’s resistance to protocol modifications adds complexity to addressing this issue. Contrary to more adaptable newer blockchains, Bitcoin’s architecture is intentionally difficult to change in order to safeguard its decentralization and security Quantum Danger Ahead? Solana Co-Founder Says Bitcoin Must Upgrade Before 2030 [ 2 ]. Yakovenko noted that switching to post-quantum cryptography would require a hard fork, which could split the network and necessitate cooperation among miners, developers, and the community Solana’s Yakovenko Says Bitcoin Must Upgrade to Survive Quantum Threat [ 1 ]. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has already approved three post-quantum signature standards—CRYSTALS-Dilithium, FALCON, and SPHINCS+—but integrating these into a decentralized system is logistically difficult. Moreover, quantum-resistant cryptography generally needs bigger key sizes and more computing power, which might slow transactions and increase energy use for miners.

This warning has initiated discussion within the cryptocurrency world. Blockstream CEO Adam Back and Bitcoin Core contributor Peter Todd have minimized the immediate risk, with Todd arguing that quantum computers capable of breaking ECC do not currently exist Quantum Danger Ahead? Solana Co-Founder Says Bitcoin Must Upgrade Before 2030 [ 2 ]. Dashjr, another contributor to Bitcoin Core, believes that current issues like spam attacks and governance are more urgent Quantum Danger Ahead? Solana Co-Founder Says Bitcoin Must Upgrade Before 2030 [ 2 ]. In spite of these differing views, Yakovenko and others insist that taking steps now is vital, given the unpredictable speed of technological change. For example, El Salvador recently spread its Bitcoin holdings across 14 wallets, and BlackRock has referenced quantum risks in filings for its Bitcoin ETF, reflecting a heightened awareness of the threat.

As the sector debates the necessity and timing of action, this discussion underscores the conflict between Bitcoin’s foundational values and the requirement to adapt to swiftly changing technology. While Yakovenko urges immediate readiness, others favor a more measured approach; however, the broad agreement is that quantum computing poses a significant risk that demands strategic, long-term planning. With major tech companies like

, , and pushing forward with quantum research, the timeframe for taking necessary steps might be shorter than previously believed.