September's Jinx and Bitcoin's Push for a Rally

September 2025 Sees Bitcoin and Stock Markets Suffer Significant Downturn

Throughout September 2025, both Bitcoin and global stock markets experienced heightened turbulence, as seasonal trends and broader economic factors combined to spark a notable correction. Bitcoin, which was valued at $110,383 on September 2, dropped 11.6% from its August high of $124,533, ending a streak of monthly gains since April. This decline is consistent with the “September Effect,” a recurring pattern in which

has recorded losses in eight out of the last twelve Septembers, with an average monthly drop of 3.77% Will Bitcoin Crash or Rise in September 2025? - Analytics Insight [ 1 ]. Stock indices followed suit, as the S&P 500 has averaged a -1.20% return in September since 1928 Will Bitcoin Crash or Rise in September 2025? - Analytics Insight [ 1 ]. Experts point to factors such as portfolio adjustments, tax-loss selling, and a waning appetite for risk after summer as drivers of this seasonal weakness.

Technical analysis points to increased risk for Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency recently slipped below its $110,000 support, putting focus on the $108,000, $107,400, and $105,500–$104,000 levels. Should prices fall beneath $105,000, a test of the $100,000 psychological barrier could follow, though some forecasts suggest this level may halt further declines Will Bitcoin Crash or Rise in September 2025? - Analytics Insight [ 1 ]. Despite this short-term weakness, certain momentum indicators, such as a milder decrease in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), point to possible accumulation by long-term investors Will Bitcoin Crash or Rise in September 2025? - Analytics Insight [ 1 ].

Institutional activity presents a mixed scenario. The number of whale wallets holding more than 100 BTC reached a new peak of 19,130 in August, indicating that large holders may be buying the dip Will Bitcoin Crash or Rise in September 2025? - Analytics Insight [ 1 ]. In contrast, Bitcoin ETFs experienced $751 million in withdrawals during the same period, showing that some institutional players with shorter investment horizons are exercising caution. This divergence highlights a struggle between speculative selling and strategic accumulation, with whales potentially helping to steady prices ahead of a possible rally Will Bitcoin Crash or Rise in September 2025? - Analytics Insight [ 1 ].

On the macroeconomic front, a weakening U.S. dollar and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts provide some positive momentum. The dollar is projected to fall by 8% in 2025 due to slower economic growth and anticipated Fed easing, which has historically strengthened Bitcoin’s negative correlation with the DXY index, now at -0.25 Will Bitcoin Crash or Rise in September 2025? - Analytics Insight [ 1 ]. Some analysts believe that lower rates could boost liquidity for riskier assets, positioning Bitcoin and alternative cryptocurrencies to benefit. “Two rate cuts could send trillions into the crypto sector,” said analyst Ash Crypto, who expects a strong rally in altcoins Will Bitcoin Crash or Rise in September 2025? - Analytics Insight [ 1 ].

Outlooks for the market remain split. Some bearish projections see Bitcoin ending September near $108,000, with the possibility of dropping to $100,000 if support fails Will Bitcoin Crash or Rise in September 2025? - Analytics Insight [ 1 ]. On the other hand, optimists like Fundstrat’s Tom Lee anticipate a rebound to $120,000 by the end of September and a year-end target of $200,000, drawing comparisons to the 2017 recovery Will Bitcoin Crash or Rise in September 2025? - Analytics Insight [ 1 ]. These differing perspectives highlight the uncertainty over whether September will repeat its usual pattern or mark the start of a breakout.

As the market enters a pivotal period, investors must balance immediate risks with long-term opportunities. While institutional moves and macro trends offer some hope, the combination of technical challenges and seasonal effects leaves Bitcoin at a decisive juncture. Whether it stabilizes near $100,000 or climbs toward $120,000, the next few weeks will be a crucial test for both cryptocurrencies and the broader stock market.