Bitcoin Rally Fueled By ETF Flows And US Demand

Amid a budget deadlock in the United States, the crypto market shows an opposite trajectory. In one week, bitcoin appreciated by 14 % and approaches its highest historic levels. Meanwhile, the total crypto market capitalization exceeds 4,210 billion dollars. This renewed strength, decoupled from political tensions in Washington, reignites the debate on the growing autonomy of these assets against traditional cycles.

A bullish impulse driven by American crypto demand

The current bitcoin surge is no accident. It is based on a solid market dynamic, supported by clearly identifiable flows, with an obvious epicenter: the United States.

Over the week, BTC rose by +14 %, going from $108,600 to nearly $124,000. This rally is strongly correlated with increased demand from American investors, a phenomenon confirmed by several technical and on-chain indicators.

Here are the most significant signals noted:

• The “Coinbase Premium Gap” reached $91.86, the difference between the BTC prices on Coinbase (US platform) and Binance. According to analyst Burak Kesmeci, this means that “American investors pay nearly 92 dollars more per bitcoin on Coinbase”;

• A volume of purchases exceeding 1.6 billion dollars in one hour was recorded, according to Maartunn , indicating exceptional pressure;

• Since the start of the U.S. government shutdown , bitcoin has risen 8%, with investors seeming to turn to cryptos in the absence of clear political direction;

• Constant inflows into Bitcoin ETFs continue to provide structural support to the bullish trend.

Strong American demand, combined with an uncertain political context, pushes the market to its highest levels. The overall economic climate also creates a favorable environment for risky assets.

According to Bitfinex analysts , this rise appears “truly natural”, and could even be strengthened by the proposal mentioned by Donald Trump for a new stimulus check financed by tariffs.

A critical step towards price discovery

Beyond this bullish impulse, the market now enters a much more uncertain technical phase. If the $125,500 threshold is crossed, bitcoin could enter a true price discovery phase, marking a break from its previous highs.

Trader Jelle points out that “120,000 dollars are being turned into support today. If this level holds over the weekend, I expect price discovery to resume as early as next week”.

This analysis fits into an overall reading of the current bullish cycle. Rekt Capital believes we have entered “phase 3”, the breakout phase, where “new highs are forming”.

Furthermore, analyst Skew points out the existence of strong sell zones around $130,000, constituting a critical resistance level. He also notes the concentration of speculative positions on Binance and institutional buying volume on Coinbase, which could create extreme short-term volatility.

This technical and political configuration could foreshadow an explosive end of year for cryptos. If flows to ETFs continue to explode and American monetary policy remains accommodative, bitcoin could exceed its previous ceilings. Conversely, a sudden change in the macroeconomic climate or a major political disappointment could reverse the trend.