TAO's $475 Assessment May Ignite a Rally to $600 or Lead to a Drop Toward $365

Bittensor (TAO) is currently at a decisive point as its price nears the $475 resistance mark, a crucial level that could dictate whether the token continues to climb or enters a period of sideways movement. Market experts and technical signals indicate that a clear move above $475 might spark a surge toward $600, especially as broader market trends and institutional activity strengthen the optimistic outlook.

The $475 threshold has previously served as a strong resistance for

, blocking several upward attempts in 2025. Yet, recent trading activity points to increasing buying momentum. On the daily timeframe, TAO has bounced back sharply from the $290 support area, rallying close to $475 in just a few sessions. Analyst Ali Martinez highlights that a decisive break above $475 would signal a "structural change" in the token's momentum, potentially paving the way for a move to $600—a price last reached in April 2024, according to a .

Technical signals further back this scenario. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has shown a bullish crossover, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near the overbought zone at 71, indicating robust short-term demand, as noted in a

. On the 4-hour chart, TAO has developed a "stair-step" formation, featuring a breakout above $475, a retest of that level, and a subsequent upward move—a pattern often linked to sustained trends, according to CoinCodex.

Beyond chart patterns, fundamental factors are also fueling interest in TAO. Grayscale's recent application for a

Trust with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has led to speculation about a possible exchange-traded fund (ETF), which could draw institutional investors, as reported by a . Moreover, the introduction of liquid staking options like TAO (VTAO) has increased the token’s utility, enabling holders to earn rewards without locking up assets and facilitating bridging to and Base networks, CoinJournal also mentioned.

The token’s market dynamics also show rising adoption. TAO’s market capitalization has climbed to $4.64 billion, with daily trading volume surpassing $900 million. Analysts point to the token’s scarcity features, such as a capped supply of 21 million and an upcoming halving event in December 2025 that will cut daily emissions by 50%, as factors that could support its long-term value, according to an

.

Despite the positive outlook, there are still risks. If TAO fails to break above $475, it could retreat to the $365–$380 range—a scenario some analysts interpret as a healthy consolidation rather than a bearish reversal, as observed by CoinCodex. The Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) line, now at -11,045, suggests ongoing selling, though experts warn that this indicator alone may not be enough to halt the uptrend, according to a

.

On the weekly chart, TAO is challenging a multi-month rounded bottom formation. Crypto Knight points out that holding above $475 could turn former resistance into lasting support, as CoinCodex reports. Conversely, a drop below $390 would undermine the bullish setup and expose the $290–$305 support area, CoinCodex added.

TAO’s path mirrors the broader rise of AI-focused crypto projects, which have gained significant traction in 2025. Grayscale’s latest analysis lists TAO as the leading AI-related cryptocurrency by market cap at $3.8 billion, highlighting its importance in decentralized AI infrastructure, according to a

. At the same time, projects like Render Network and are also seeing increased momentum, reflecting a trend toward AI-integrated blockchain platforms, as a noted.

Bittensor (TAO) faces a pivotal moment. A persistent breakout above $475 would not only confirm the token’s technical strength but could also pave the way to $600, attracting both short-term traders and long-term investors. With growing institutional interest, advancements in liquid staking, and a supportive technical backdrop, TAO’s upcoming moves may reshape its position in the AI crypto sector. Still, investors should stay alert, as a failed breakout or wider market downturns could challenge the bullish scenario.

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