Federal Reserve's Waller: Government shutdown makes future policy path more uncertain
BlockBeats News, October 16, according to Golden Ten Data on October 16, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that he supports further interest rate cuts later this month. However, due to the ongoing government shutdown and the lack of official economic data, there remains significant uncertainty regarding the policy path thereafter. Waller noted that there are still conflicting signals regarding the economic outlook: economic growth appears to remain strong, but the labor market has clearly tightened for workers.
Waller pointed out, "Since we are not yet sure how the data will evolve, the Federal Reserve needs to act cautiously when adjusting policy rates to avoid making costly mistakes that are difficult to correct." He also noted that the specific timing of rate cuts, as well as policy decisions after October, remain highly uncertain. "The policy path after October will depend on how the contradictions between economic activity and labor market data are resolved, as well as the trend of inflation expectations." He added that the government shutdown has made the Fed's decision-making environment more complex. The shutdown itself may cause temporary economic fluctuations, but once the government reopens, the economy will recover quickly. However, if the shutdown lasts too long, it will weaken economic growth potential and delay the recovery process. (Golden Ten Data)
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The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 24.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by March is 8.1%.
