MegaETH public sale imminent, what is its valuation?

Original Title: "MegaETH Valuation Game: Entry Opportunity or Looming Risk?"

Original Author: KarenZ, Foresight News

With its technological breakthrough of a "real-time blockchain" and a community-driven ecological philosophy, MegaETH has become a focal project in the crypto market.

While the Ethereum ecosystem is still struggling with performance bottlenecks, MegaETH is redefining the boundaries of imagination for the Layer 2 track with its technological declaration of "100,000 TPS + millisecond latency."

From the early seed round investment by Vitalik, to the lightning fundraising by the Echo community, and then to this year's NFT sale, every step of MegaETH has stirred the nerves of the market.

This article will break down the financing trajectory, valuation logic, core value, and potential risks.

MegaETH Financing Journey: From VC and Vitalik Endorsement to Community Building

As an Ethereum L2 project committed to realizing a "real-time blockchain," MegaETH's financing history demonstrates an evolution from VC funding to community-driven sales.

In June 2024, MegaETH announced the completion of a $20 million seed round led by Dragonfly, with participation from Figment Capital, Robot Ventures, Big Brain Holdings, and others. Angel investors included Vitalik Buterin, ConsenSys founder and CEO Joseph Lubin, EigenLayer founder and CEO Sreeram Kannan, ETHGlobal co-founder Kartik Talwar, Helius Labs co-founder and CEO Mert Mumtaz, Hasu, and Jordan Fish (aka Cobie), among others.

By December 2024, MegaETH raised $10 million in under three minutes through Cobie’s Echo platform, far exceeding the original target of $4.2 million. This round attracted about 3,200 investors from 94 countries, with an average investment of $3,140 per investor.

At the time, MegaETH co-founder Shuyao Kong told The Block that both the seed round and Echo round used a structure of equity plus token warrants, with both rounds valued in the "nine-figure" range, meaning the FDV was at least $100 million.

Unexpectedly for the community, in February this year, MegaETH launched the "The Fluffle" NFT series for innovative fundraising, further expanding its community base. The series consists of 10,000 non-transferable SBTs (Soul Bound Tokens), sold via whitelist at a price of 1 ETH each. Holders are entitled to at least 5% of future token allocations, with 50% unlocked on TGE day and the remainder gradually unlocked over six months.

This NFT issuance was divided into two phases. The first phase (5,000 NFTs) was retrospective, targeting those actively involved in the crypto industry (from supporting key protocols to leading local communities), with a small portion allocated to influential early believers in the MegaETH community and various strategic partners, some of whom received free mints. A week after launch, MegaETH announced the completion of the first phase of NFT issuance.

According to MegaETH’s previous plans, the second phase of NFT issuance will be launched a few months after the first, aiming to provide similar participation opportunities for users who continue to drive influential social and on-chain interactions for MegaETH. The difference in this round is that quotas will be allocated to MegaETH’s flagship accelerator program, "Mega Mafia." Each team will receive a portion of the quota to distribute within their own communities. A small portion of the quota in this round will be reserved for ordinary users through social media analysis.

According to the MegaETH website, the latest community sale is open to all users who have successfully completed identity verification on the Sonar platform and will use USDT on the Ethereum mainnet as the payment method. An English auction may be adopted, with a fixed maximum price cap. Choosing a one-year lock-up period offers a 10% discount on the final token price. All US participants must lock up.

Valuation Logic: Historical Pricing, Market Expectations, and Core Value

The evolution of MegaETH’s valuation is closely linked to its financing history, market expectations, technological progress, allocation mechanisms, and ecosystem.

Historical Financing Valuation: Climbing from $100 Million to $540 Million

As mentioned above, MegaETH’s FDV in the $20 million seed round in June 2024 and the $10 million Echo round in December 2024 were both in the nine-figure range.

In the first phase of this year’s NFT issuance, according to a screenshot posted by then-OpenSea CMO Adam Hollander, MegaETH raised 4,964 ETH in the first phase, worth $13.29 million at the time.

According to the author’s calculations, this $13.29 million represents at least 2.5% of the token allocation rights, which means that based on the NFT fundraising situation, MegaETH’s FDV was around $540 million at that time.

Polymarket Market Prediction: 86% Probability of Hitting $2 Billion FDV

On Polymarket’s prediction market for "MegaETH FDV after the first day of listing," the probability of FDV exceeding $2 billion is 86%, the probability of exceeding $4 billion is 57%, and the probability of exceeding $6 billion is 21%.

This means that if MegaETH’s FDV reaches $2 billion, the first batch of NFT holders would see a 3.7x return (in USD terms), while seed and Echo round participants would have even greater profit potential.

Platform Effect: "Profit Effect" of Sonar’s First Project

The Sonar platform (an Echo subsidiary founded by Cobie), where this community sale is taking place, comes with its own traffic halo. Its first fundraising project, Plasma, performed impressively—on the fourth day after TGE, it peaked at 34 times the sale price ($0.05), and is still maintaining a 9x increase. This platform effect has further raised market expectations for MegaETH’s valuation.

Core Value: Triple Moat of Technology, Mechanism, and Ecosystem

MegaETH’s continued favor from capital and the community stems from its differentiated competitiveness in technological innovation, allocation mechanisms, and ecosystem building.

On the technology side, addressing the common issues of second-level latency and insufficient throughput in current L2s, MegaETH has significantly improved Ethereum’s scalability by optimizing the execution environment and node architecture, while maintaining full compatibility with EVM. This directly targets the core needs of high-frequency trading, real-time blockchain games, and other Web3 applications.

In terms of allocation mechanisms, MegaETH’s approach is largely community-oriented, from the seed round to the elite community-only Echo fundraising platform, and then to NFT sales targeting deeply involved crypto industry participants, avoiding the monopoly of shares by institutions seen in traditional fundraising.

It is worth emphasizing that MegaETH’s "The Fluffle" SBT series also abandons tradability, with token release following a "TGE 50% + 6 months linear unlock" model. At the start of unlocking, the release of token rewards to holders is linked to the depth of network interaction, encouraging real user participation through a dynamic evolution mechanism.

On the ecosystem front, MegaETH is rolling out step by step through its accelerator program MegaMafia, flagship builder hub MegaForge, and stablecoin MegaUSD. The testnet has already attracted multiple applications, covering DeFi, social, gaming, AI, and other fields. Some selected applications include DEX GTE, stablecoin engine CAP, real-time perpetual contract platform Valhalla, and trend trading platform NOISE.

Risk Warning

Despite its highlights, MegaETH still faces multiple challenges. In comparison, the current mainstream Layer 2 valuations have set a reference benchmark for the market: Arbitrum FDV is $3.2 billion, OP FDV is $2 billion, Starknet FDV is $1.2 billion, and Zksync FDV is $800 million. Against this backdrop, whether MegaETH can break through a $2 billion FDV remains uncertain.

As an early-stage project, MegaETH also faces risks in technological implementation and overall market volatility. Investors should remain rational, wait for the detailed sales terms to be announced, and make prudent decisions based on specific pricing, FDV, and tokenomics. DYOR.