Author: Hotcoin Research
Crypto Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.63 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.9% at $2.13 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $307.1 billion, up 0.95% over the past 7 days, with the number of stablecoins continuing to grow, and USDT accounting for 59.1%.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most declined while a few rose. Notably: TAO increased by 44.64% over 7 days, MORPHO by 35.26%, IP by 21.8%, TRAC by 54.64%, and RSR by 47.38%.
This week, US Bitcoin spot ETF net outflow: $1.225 billion; US Ethereum spot ETF net outflow: $311.8 million.
Market forecast (October 20 - October 24):
Currently, the RSI index is 42.95 (neutral range), the Fear & Greed Index is 22 (lower than last week, in the fear range), and the Altcoin Season Index is 37.
BTC core range: $104,000-112,000
ETH core range: $3,600-4,100
SOL core range: $175-210
In the first half of the week, following Powell's remarks about "stopping balance sheet reduction soon and continuing to cut rates in the future," the market experienced a rebound, but started to decline in the second half of the week.
Has the foundation of the bull market been shaken?
Not completely disproved: The core drivers of this bull market (such as changes in the global monetary landscape and institutional adoption) are structural, and a short-term shock caused by geopolitical events is not enough to completely reverse the long-term trend. However, the path has changed: This event has taught all investors a lesson, that macropolitical risk has become a top-level variable in the crypto market that cannot be ignored. The road to the next bull market will be more tortuous.
Short-term traders:
Low leverage, high flexibility: In the current high-volatility environment, prioritize BTC and ETH, use a range-trading approach, closely monitor news, and focus mainly on Trump's Twitter, White House announcements, and official responses from both China and the US. The market will react very quickly and sharply to news releases.
Mid- to long-term investors:
DCA investors: For those who are bullish on the crypto market in the long term, this crash can be seen as a "golden pit." Consider starting to DCA in batches near key support levels (such as BTC $102,000, ETH $3,700), spread out the entry prices, and avoid going all-in at once.
Position holders: If your position is not heavy, you can patiently hold. If your position is heavy and your cost is high, consider reducing your position appropriately when the market rebounds to resistance levels to lower risk and pressure.
Understanding the Present
Review of Major Events This Week
1. On October 13, Binance compensated $283 million to users affected by the USDE and other asset depegging incidents; the spot "zero price" was only a display issue;
2. On October 13, prediction market platform Kalshi partnered with Pyth Network, becoming the latest data publisher to transmit its prediction market information to over 100 blockchains;
3. On October 15, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell warned on Tuesday that the US labor market is showing further signs of distress, suggesting he may be ready to support another rate cut later this month;
4. On October 16, Eric Trump confirmed plans to launch a real estate tokenization project through World Liberty Financial, marking further application of crypto technology in the real estate sector;
5. On October 17, in the past 24 hours, $710 million in liquidations occurred across the network, with a total of 217,395 people liquidated globally, including $508 million in long liquidations and $202 million in short liquidations. The largest single liquidation occurred on Hyperliquid - BTC-USD, valued at $20.4274 million;
6. On October 16, Coinbase launched the stablecoin payment platform Coinbase Business, enabling enterprises to send and receive USDC. This will simplify vendor payment processes, eliminate chargeback issues, and provide seamless API integration to help businesses scale efficiently;
7. The US Department of Justice completed the largest seizure in history: On October 14, the US Department of Justice announced criminal charges against Chen Zhi, founder of Cambodia's Prince Group, and successfully seized 127,271 bitcoins under his control (worth about $15 billion), marking the largest judicial bitcoin seizure globally. This move demonstrates the state's ability to control on-chain assets;
8. US government shutdown continues: As of October 16, the US government's "shutdown" crisis persists, causing delays in the release of key economic data, increasing macroeconomic uncertainty, and further dampening market risk appetite, including for cryptocurrencies;
9. Safe-haven funds flow into gold: Driven by escalating trade frictions, concerns over bank credit risk, and the US government shutdown, risk aversion is high, with large inflows into gold. Spot gold prices broke through $4,380/ounce this week, hitting consecutive record highs.
Macroeconomics
1. On October 15, Powell anticipated that the Federal Reserve may stop balance sheet reduction in the coming months. He stated at the meeting that the Fed's long-standing plan is to stop action when reserves are slightly above the level the Fed deems adequate;
2. On October 18, according to the Fed Rate Monitor, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October is 94.8%.
ETF
According to statistics, during October 13-17, US Bitcoin spot ETF net outflow: $1.225 billion; as of October 17, GBTC (Grayscale) has seen a total outflow of $24.453 billion, currently holding $18.475 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $85.778 billion. The total market value of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $144.748 billion.
US Ethereum spot ETF net outflow: $311.8 million.
Looking Ahead
Upcoming Events
1. The 2025 Shanghai Blockchain International Week will open in October, with the "11th Global Blockchain Summit" hosted by Wanxiang Blockchain Labs as the core event on October 23;
2. Blockchain Life 2025 will be held in Dubai, UAE, from October 28 to 29, 2025;
3. Bitcoin MENA will be held at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC) from December 8 to 9;
4. Solana Breakpoint 2025 will be held in Abu Dhabi from December 11 to 13.
Project Updates
1. Ethereal will release its mainnet Alpha version on October 20;
2. HyperSwap posted "October 20," possibly hinting at a TGE on October 20;
3. Bluwhale AI (BLUAI) will conduct its TGE on October 21;
4. Meteora (MET) will conduct its TGE on October 23.
Key Events
1. The US Treasury is soliciting public comments on the implementation of the "GENIUS Act," with a deadline of October 20;
2. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September CPI report at 20:30 (GMT+8) on October 24.
Token Unlocks
1. LayerZero (ZERO) will unlock 25.32 million tokens on October 20, worth about $43.7 million, accounting for 7.86% of circulation;
2. KAITO (KAITO) will unlock 8.35 million tokens on October 20, worth about $8.71 million, accounting for 3.06% of circulation;
2. Scroll (SCR) will unlock 82.5 million tokens on October 22, worth about $14.08 million, accounting for 43.42% of circulation.
